Rival Watch

[Stranded]

Don’t disagree it was a huge game and as said of you were to pinpoint 1 game that might be it (though leaning towards zip and Brum home)

But you can’t say it was absolutely nothing to do with the crap results against the bottom teams - because it clearly was

No one is saying crap results against the bottom sides don't have an impact but that you can't look at ours in isolation.

For our 0/6pts v Brum, see Bournemouth's 0/6 v Wednesday. Disappointing draw at and home defeat to Preston, check.

Disappointing home defeat to Stoke v Disappointing home defeat to Luton (in fact Bournemouth failed to score against Luton over 2 games).

Both drop points at Forest.

Disappointing defeat at Coventry v disappointing defeat at Derby.

So yeah, dropping those points hurt but clubs around 5th to 7th will have those results, hence why they are there and not 1st or 2nd.

That's why defeats like the 4-2 are, for me much more important as it is the difference between 2 pretty well matched teams.

If these games weren't that little bit more important, when it comes to defining a team's season, then the term "six pointer" would never have been invented.

[Zip]

Don’t disagree it was a huge game and as said of you were to pinpoint 1 game that might be it (though leaning towards zip and Brum home)

But you can’t say it was absolutely nothing to do with the crap results against the bottom teams - because it clearly was

No one is saying crap results against the bottom sides don't have an impact but that you can't look at ours in isolation.

For our 0/6pts v Brum, see Bournemouth's 0/6 v Wednesday. Disappointing draw at and home defeat to Preston, check.

Disappointing home defeat to Stoke v Disappointing home defeat to Luton (in fact Bournemouth failed to score against Luton over 2 games).

Both drop points at Forest.

Disappointing defeat at Coventry v disappointing defeat at Derby.

So yeah, dropping those points hurt but clubs around 5th to 7th will have those results, hence why they are there and not 1st or 2nd.

That's why defeats like the 4-2 are, for me much more important as it is the difference between 2 pretty well matched teams.

If these games weren't that little bit more important, when it comes to defining a team's season, then the term "six pointer" would never have been invented.

You would expect to lose games against the top sides in the division. You wouldn’t expect to drop so many points against the very weakest. How have the other play off contenders performed against the weakest sides?

[Stranded]

Don’t disagree it was a huge game and as said of you were to pinpoint 1 game that might be it (though leaning towards zip and Brum home)

But you can’t say it was absolutely nothing to do with the crap results against the bottom teams - because it clearly was

No one is saying crap results against the bottom sides don't have an impact but that you can't look at ours in isolation.

For our 0/6pts v Brum, see Bournemouth's 0/6 v Wednesday. Disappointing draw at and home defeat to Preston, check.

Disappointing home defeat to Stoke v Disappointing home defeat to Luton (in fact Bournemouth failed to score against Luton over 2 games).

Both drop points at Forest.

Disappointing defeat at Coventry v disappointing defeat at Derby.

So yeah, dropping those points hurt but clubs around 5th to 7th will have those results, hence why they are there and not 1st or 2nd.

That's why defeats like the 4-2 are, for me much more important as it is the difference between 2 pretty well matched teams.

If these games weren't that little bit more important, when it comes to defining a team's season, then the term "six pointer" would never have been invented.

You would expect to lose games against the top sides in the division. You wouldn’t expect to drop so many points against the very weakest. How have the other play off contenders performed against the weakest sides?

I have literally just posted a fairly detailed list of points that Bournemouth have dropped against similar (or the same) clubs we've dropped points against.

We've picked up 13pts against the bottom 3. If Bournemouth win at Wycombe on 1st May, they will have picked up 10 in total - currently W2 D1 L2.

V current bottom 6 - Huddersfield, Derby, Coventry, Rotherham, Wednesday & Wycombe.

Bournemouth P 11 W6 D2 L3 Pts 20
Reading P11 W8 D1 L2 Pts 25

Add in Blackburn & Brum to take in the whole bottom third of the table:

Bournemouth P 15 W 10 D2 L3 Pts 32
Reading P15 W10 D1 L4 Pts 31

Both going at over 2pts a game v the current bottom 8, skewed slightly by us losing to Brum twice. Against the absolute dregs, we are "better" than them, again skewed by them losing twice to Wednesday.

So yes, you can make an argument for the Brum games hurting but the above still says to me that the 4-2 defeat currently looks like being the killer.

[Zip]

No one is saying crap results against the bottom sides don't have an impact but that you can't look at ours in isolation.

For our 0/6pts v Brum, see Bournemouth's 0/6 v Wednesday. Disappointing draw at and home defeat to Preston, check.

Disappointing home defeat to Stoke v Disappointing home defeat to Luton (in fact Bournemouth failed to score against Luton over 2 games).

Both drop points at Forest.

Disappointing defeat at Coventry v disappointing defeat at Derby.

So yeah, dropping those points hurt but clubs around 5th to 7th will have those results, hence why they are there and not 1st or 2nd.

That's why defeats like the 4-2 are, for me much more important as it is the difference between 2 pretty well matched teams.

If these games weren't that little bit more important, when it comes to defining a team's season, then the term "six pointer" would never have been invented.

You would expect to lose games against the top sides in the division. You wouldn’t expect to drop so many points against the very weakest. How have the other play off contenders performed against the weakest sides?

I have literally just posted a fairly detailed list of points that Bournemouth have dropped against similar (or the same) clubs we've dropped points against.

We've picked up 13pts against the bottom 3. If Bournemouth win at Wycombe on 1st May, they will have picked up 10 in total - currently W2 D1 L2.

V current bottom 6 - Huddersfield, Derby, Coventry, Rotherham, Wednesday & Wycombe.

Bournemouth P 11 W6 D2 L3 Pts 20
Reading P11 W8 D1 L2 Pts 25

Add in Blackburn & Brum to take in the whole bottom third of the table:

Bournemouth P 15 W 10 D2 L3 Pts 32
Reading P15 W10 D1 L4 Pts 31

Both going at over 2pts a game v the current bottom 8, skewed slightly by us losing to Brum twice. Against the absolute dregs, we are "better" than them, again skewed by them losing twice to Wednesday.

So yes, you can make an argument for the Brum games hurting but the above still says to me that the 4-2 defeat currently looks like being the killer.

I saw the Bournemouth stats but was enquiring about the other play off sides. I still don’t agree that the Bournemouth result in isolation was as crucial as the Brum defeat which had lasting consequences with no fit strikers available for the subsequent half dozen games.

[Hound]

Yeah same. Just as Bournemouth being rubbish against the worst sides doesn’t mean that what’s let us down is our own performances against them

Think trying to find one single game that has ‘cost us the season’ is a bit pointless anyway tbh. The Brum game probably affected our future results more due to the injuries

[Stranded]

You would expect to lose games against the top sides in the division. You wouldn’t expect to drop so many points against the very weakest. How have the other play off contenders performed against the weakest sides?

I have literally just posted a fairly detailed list of points that Bournemouth have dropped against similar (or the same) clubs we've dropped points against.

We've picked up 13pts against the bottom 3. If Bournemouth win at Wycombe on 1st May, they will have picked up 10 in total - currently W2 D1 L2.

V current bottom 6 - Huddersfield, Derby, Coventry, Rotherham, Wednesday & Wycombe.

Bournemouth P 11 W6 D2 L3 Pts 20
Reading P11 W8 D1 L2 Pts 25

Add in Blackburn & Brum to take in the whole bottom third of the table:

Bournemouth P 15 W 10 D2 L3 Pts 32
Reading P15 W10 D1 L4 Pts 31

Both going at over 2pts a game v the current bottom 8, skewed slightly by us losing to Brum twice. Against the absolute dregs, we are "better" than them, again skewed by them losing twice to Wednesday.

So yes, you can make an argument for the Brum games hurting but the above still says to me that the 4-2 defeat currently looks like being the killer.

I saw the Bournemouth stats but was enquiring about the other play off sides. I still don’t agree that the Bournemouth result in isolation was as crucial as the Brum defeat which had lasting consequences with no fit strikers available for the subsequent half dozen games.

V Bottom 8

Bournemouth P15 P32
Reading P15 P31
Brentford P15 P27
Barnsley P13 Pts 23
Swansea P14 Pts 22

[Stranded]

Yeah same. Just as Bournemouth being rubbish against the worst sides doesn’t mean that what’s let us down is our own performances against them

Think trying to find one single game that has ‘cost us the season’ is a bit pointless anyway tbh. The Brum game probably affected our future results more due to the injuries

I'm not pinpointing a game. Just saying that one game saw a swing from a 1pt lead today, into a 5pt gap.

[Zip]

I have literally just posted a fairly detailed list of points that Bournemouth have dropped against similar (or the same) clubs we've dropped points against.

We've picked up 13pts against the bottom 3. If Bournemouth win at Wycombe on 1st May, they will have picked up 10 in total - currently W2 D1 L2.

V current bottom 6 - Huddersfield, Derby, Coventry, Rotherham, Wednesday & Wycombe.

Bournemouth P 11 W6 D2 L3 Pts 20
Reading P11 W8 D1 L2 Pts 25

Add in Blackburn & Brum to take in the whole bottom third of the table:

Bournemouth P 15 W 10 D2 L3 Pts 32
Reading P15 W10 D1 L4 Pts 31

Both going at over 2pts a game v the current bottom 8, skewed slightly by us losing to Brum twice. Against the absolute dregs, we are "better" than them, again skewed by them losing twice to Wednesday.

So yes, you can make an argument for the Brum games hurting but the above still says to me that the 4-2 defeat currently looks like being the killer.

I saw the Bournemouth stats but was enquiring about the other play off sides. I still don’t agree that the Bournemouth result in isolation was as crucial as the Brum defeat which had lasting consequences with no fit strikers available for the subsequent half dozen games.

V Bottom 8

Bournemouth P15 P32
Reading P15 P31
Brentford P15 P27
Barnsley P13 Pts 23
Swansea P14 Pts 22

Very interesting and surprising stats. We seem to have done well against the lower mid table sides.

[Zip]

Yeah same. Just as Bournemouth being rubbish against the worst sides doesn’t mean that what’s let us down is our own performances against them

Think trying to find one single game that has ‘cost us the season’ is a bit pointless anyway tbh. The Brum game probably affected our future results more due to the injuries

I'm not pinpointing a game. Just saying that one game saw a swing from a 1pt lead today, into a 5pt gap.

I think we accept that but we lost a lot of points when we had no strikers pre Christmas.

[Zip]

Have we been unluckier with injuries than our rivals? The likes of Toney and Ayew have barely missed any games. I doubt any of our rivals had all three forwards out at the same time for a number of weeks.

[Hound]

Yeah same. Just as Bournemouth being rubbish against the worst sides doesn’t mean that what’s let us down is our own performances against them

Think trying to find one single game that has ‘cost us the season’ is a bit pointless anyway tbh. The Brum game probably affected our future results more due to the injuries

I'm not pinpointing a game. Just saying that one game saw a swing from a 1pt lead today, into a 5pt gap.

It is kind of just finding one result which had it been different would have made a big change points wise. Of course that is the case but I'm not sure in the grand scheme it actually did anything other than that. You can always find a 6 pointer that if it had gone a different way would have had a significant impact. It didnt set us off on a bad run (much the opposite) or Bournemouth on a good one or anything like that. Tindall might even have been sacked sooner had they lost it

I'd still say we didnt play badly in that game either, not even the second half. They clicked for 15 mins, got 2 goals, and then relied on a wonder strike from some bloke who never scores to win the game, when they weren't really threatening. Even took a great save at the end to stop us going 3-3. Don't see it as being a big collapse really.

the stats on the other teams against the bottom 8 is certainly interesting. Bizarre how bad Swansea have been against them.

So as we were overall strong against the bottom 8, not terrible against the top 6 (though not great either), where have we lost it? Probably go back to the games against the more physical sides. We've done very poorly points wise against Millwall, Stoke, Preston, Middlesborough (4pts from 8 games), though done well against Cardiff, Rotherham and Barnsley.

Or maybe its just overall we haven't quite been good enough.

[Hendo]

Can we all just agree that all points are important, regardless of who they're against and some have more meaning than others, be it against rivals or from a form and confidence perspective?

[Hound]

Can we all just agree that all points are important, regardless of who they're against and some have more meaning than others, be it against rivals or from a form and confidence perspective?

oh thats undoubtedly true but its quite interesting* to have a closer analysis of where we slipped up. Not that it makes any difference of course, but its quite nice to have a look

[Stranded]

Yeah same. Just as Bournemouth being rubbish against the worst sides doesn’t mean that what’s let us down is our own performances against them

Think trying to find one single game that has ‘cost us the season’ is a bit pointless anyway tbh. The Brum game probably affected our future results more due to the injuries

I'm not pinpointing a game. Just saying that one game saw a swing from a 1pt lead today, into a 5pt gap.

It is kind of just finding one result which had it been different would have made a big change points wise. Of course that is the case but I'm not sure in the grand scheme it actually did anything other than that. You can always find a 6 pointer that if it had gone a different way would have had a significant impact. It didnt set us off on a bad run (much the opposite) or Bournemouth on a good one or anything like that. Tindall might even have been sacked sooner had they lost it

I'd still say we didnt play badly in that game either, not even the second half. They clicked for 15 mins, got 2 goals, and then relied on a wonder strike from some bloke who never scores to win the game, when they weren't really threatening. Even took a great save at the end to stop us going 3-3. Don't see it as being a big collapse really.

the stats on the other teams against the bottom 8 is certainly interesting. Bizarre how bad Swansea have been against them.

So as we were overall strong against the bottom 8, not terrible against the top 6 (though not great either), where have we lost it? Probably go back to the games against the more physical sides. We've done very poorly points wise against Millwall, Stoke, Preston, Middlesborough (4pts from 8 games), though done well against Cardiff, Rotherham and Barnsley.

Or maybe its just overall we haven't quite been good enough.

If you take results against the top 6 - and just on results, not performances - it doesn't make amazing reading

In a table consisting of the current top 7 (to include us) we are 2nd bottom with 11 points (Barnsley bottom), 3 points behind Bournemouth/Swansea and 5 off Brentford. Again, the Bournemouth result sticks out as particularly painful.

The big story is Barnsley's record against the middle 8 - they've picked up 37 pts in 15 games. 52% of all their points have come in games against the sides 9th to 16th.

Splitting the table in to thirds. We are bottom of the table against the top 8 and the middle 8 and 4th against the bottom 8.

Top 8

Norwich P10 Pts 19
Brentford P11 Pts 19
Swansea P12 Pts 19
Watford P11 Pts15
Bournemouth P12 Pts 15
Reading P11 Pts 11
Barnsley P13 Pts 11

Middle 8

Barnsley P15 Pts 37
Swansea P15 Pts 34
Norwich P15 Pts 33
Watford P14 Pts 31
Brentford P14 Pts 27
Bournemouth P14 Pts 24
Reading P15 Pts 24

Bottom 8

Norwich P16 Pts 38
Watford P16 Pts 36
Bournemouth P15 Pts 32
Reading P15 Pts 31
Brentford P15 Pts 27
Barnsley P13 Pts23
Swansea P14 Pts 22

[Snowflake Royal]

Don’t disagree it was a huge game and as said of you were to pinpoint 1 game that might be it (though leaning towards zip and Brum home)

But you can’t say it was absolutely nothing to do with the crap results against the bottom teams - because it clearly was

No one is saying crap results against the bottom sides don't have an impact but that you can't look at ours in isolation.

For our 0/6pts v Brum, see Bournemouth's 0/6 v Wednesday. Disappointing draw at and home defeat to Preston, check.

Disappointing home defeat to Stoke v Disappointing home defeat to Luton (in fact Bournemouth failed to score against Luton over 2 games).

Both drop points at Forest.

Disappointing defeat at Coventry v disappointing defeat at Derby.

So yeah, dropping those points hurt but clubs around 5th to 7th will have those results, hence why they are there and not 1st or 2nd.

That's why defeats like the 4-2 are, for me much more important as it is the difference between 2 pretty well matched teams.

If these games weren't that little bit more important, when it comes to defining a team's season, then the term "six pointer" would never have been invented.

You would expect to lose games against the top sides in the division. You wouldn’t expect to drop so many points against the very weakest. How have the other play off contenders performed against the weakest sides?

Did you actually read the post zip, because the answer to your question is literally in it.

If you're trying to be a top side, no, you can't expect to lose to top sides.

And why would we have expected to lose to Bournemouth three games after one of our best ever starts to the season? We had almost our first choice side available.

[Snowflake Royal]

Yeah same. Just as Bournemouth being rubbish against the worst sides doesn’t mean that what’s let us down is our own performances against them

Think trying to find one single game that has ‘cost us the season’ is a bit pointless anyway tbh. The Brum game probably affected our future results more due to the injuries

I'm not pinpointing a game. Just saying that one game saw a swing from a 1pt lead today, into a 5pt gap.

Yes, the point is the people constantly bringing up Wycombe and Birmingham etc as our downfall. Stranded and I aren't bringing up Bournemouth, we're pointing out that if you want to play that game these people are picking the wrong results.

It's stupid. Looking for individual games is stupid. But if you start playing that game then poor results against rivals has to be where you go. Because all top teams get duff results against 'lesser' sides. As stranded has shown.

[Hendo]

Can we all just agree that all points are important, regardless of who they're against and some have more meaning than others, be it against rivals or from a form and confidence perspective?

oh thats undoubtedly true but its quite interesting* to have a closer analysis of where we slipped up. Not that it makes any difference of course, but its quite nice to have a look

Unless it results in a circular argument with no end in sight

[Hound]

Can we all just agree that all points are important, regardless of who they're against and some have more meaning than others, be it against rivals or from a form and confidence perspective?

oh thats undoubtedly true but its quite interesting* to have a closer analysis of where we slipped up. Not that it makes any difference of course, but its quite nice to have a look

Unless it results in a circular argument with no end in sight

yeah know what you mean, but think this has actually been a bit better than that. got quite a clear pic courtesy of Stranded's figures where things have gone wrong and challenged a few misconceptions - ie I did think we'd been a lot worst than we'd been against the bottom sides

[Stranded]

oh thats undoubtedly true but its quite interesting* to have a closer analysis of where we slipped up. Not that it makes any difference of course, but its quite nice to have a look

Unless it results in a circular argument with no end in sight

yeah know what you mean, but think this has actually been a bit better than that. got quite a clear pic courtesy of Stranded's figures where things have gone wrong and challenged a few misconceptions - ie I did think we'd been a lot worst than we'd been against the bottom sides

Think that is a pretty natural assumption as a defeat to Wycombe will stand out more than one to Bournemouth. Unfortunately, in isolation, the latter is potentially more costly.

I too was surprised about how good we've been against the dross. Shows though that there is probably a bit of a flat track bully about us this year and against better sides we struggle more.

Possibly backed up that exactly half our goals have come in the 15 games against the bottom 8.

[Hound]

Unless it results in a circular argument with no end in sight

yeah know what you mean, but think this has actually been a bit better than that. got quite a clear pic courtesy of Stranded's figures where things have gone wrong and challenged a few misconceptions - ie I did think we'd been a lot worst than we'd been against the bottom sides

Think that is a pretty natural assumption as a defeat to Wycombe will stand out more than one to Bournemouth. Unfortunately, in isolation, the latter is potentially more costly.

I too was surprised about how good we've been against the dross. Shows though that there is probably a bit of a flat track bully about us this year and against better sides we struggle more.

Possibly backed up that exactly half our goals have come in the 15 games against the bottom 8.

We've kind of dealt well with the dross, except when we haven't if you know what I mean. Easily brushed aside the likes of Sheff Weds, Cov, Rotherham and co at home, and fairly comfortable even in the closer games - Wycombe h, Rotherham a - with the odd scare.

But then the performances vs Wycombe a, Brum h/a particularly were three of our worst. The Cov (a) and Sheff Weds (a) weren't too bad relatively.

For me there were still more positives than negatives about the bournemouth game, and didnt feel too despondent coming out of it at the time.