Is it coming home?

[genome]

My ICHOMETER® is at 90%

[Hendo]

WRTTOP

Yes, yes it is.

+1

[Winston Biscuit]

ICH

[genome]

WRTTOP

Yes, yes it is.

+1

Even Green's getting excited, I think we might be onto something good here

[NathStPaul]

WRTTOP

Yes, yes it is.

+1

Even Green's getting excited, I think we might be onto something good here

Or it is the kiss of death. One or the other.

[St Pauli]

WRTTOP, no.

England have played very well to get this far, and are a very good side. but apart from a well below par Germany they have not yet faced a top tier side, and they will not face one until the final.

I think they have a very good chance of reaching the final, but whoever they play there will have had a much harder time of it getting there.

[Westwood52]

We will never have a better chance.This is it.

[Hendo]

WRTTOP, no.

England have played very well to get this far, and are a very good side. but apart from a well below par Germany they have not yet faced a top tier side, and they will not face one until the final.

I think they have a very good chance of reaching the final, but whoever they play there will have had a much harder time of it getting there.

Which could work into England’s favour, no? They strolled past Ukraine last night, were able to rest players, make early subs and be in the best shape for the semi.

Say Italy make it to the final, they’ve been to extra time against Austria, had a tough game against Belgium and if they get taken to extra time against Spain, which is entirely possible, then going into the final they aren’t going to be in the best shape. Whereas England might be.

Of course there is the flip side to that, which says Italy would have great momentum and no fear going into the final.

[Snowflake Royal]

WRTTOP, no.

England have played very well to get this far, and are a very good side. but apart from a well below par Germany they have not yet faced a top tier side, and they will not face one until the final.

I think they have a very good chance of reaching the final, but whoever they play there will have had a much harder time of it getting there.

Spain have similarly yet to face a top tier side and have had to go to ET in both their knockout games, plus penalties in one of them. They're far from their best.

Tough match up, but I see them as certainly beatable.

Italy are, of course, the favourites but they had to go to ET against Austria. And they've lost one of their top performing players this tournament in Spinnazola. I don't see England beating them, but there is at least some hope of tiredness creeping in (they've used their squad well sadly) and missing the LB.

On the way there, Denmark are no joke and are ranked in Fifa's top 10, above Germany. Plus whilst they may have lost one of their most dangerous players, their togetherness and motivation is through the roof. They've not played ET and they destroyed a decent Wales.

If we can beat Denmark to get to the Final, no easy prospect, Spain don't have me terrified by any means and maybe Italy's legs will go.

Hoping for ET between Spain and Italy.

[St Pauli]

WRTTOP, no.

England have played very well to get this far, and are a very good side. but apart from a well below par Germany they have not yet faced a top tier side, and they will not face one until the final.

I think they have a very good chance of reaching the final, but whoever they play there will have had a much harder time of it getting there.

Spain have similarly yet to face a top tier side and have had to go to ET in both their knockout games, plus penalties in one of them. They're far from their best.

Tough match up, but I see them as certainly beatable.

Italy are, of course, the favourites but they had to go to ET against Austria. And they've lost one of their top performing players this tournament in Spinnazola. I don't see England beating them, but there is at least some hope of tiredness creeping in (they've used their squad well sadly) and missing the LB.

On the way there, Denmark are no joke and are ranked in Fifa's top 10, above Germany. Plus whilst they may have lost one of their most dangerous players, their togetherness and motivation is through the roof. They've not played ET and they destroyed a decent Wales.

If we can beat Denmark to get to the Final, no easy prospect, Spain don't have me terrified by any means and maybe Italy's legs will go.

Hoping for ET between Spain and Italy.

All good points, especially about Spinnazola.

That said I’m of the school of thought that FIFA rankings are absolutely meaningless.

[Scutterbucketz]

WRTTOP, no.

England have played very well to get this far, and are a very good side. but apart from a well below par Germany they have not yet faced a top tier side, and they will not face one until the final.

I think they have a very good chance of reaching the final, but whoever they play there will have had a much harder time of it getting there.

Nah, you’re wrong. They’re going to shit it. ICH

[Snowflake Royal]

WRTTOP, no.

England have played very well to get this far, and are a very good side. but apart from a well below par Germany they have not yet faced a top tier side, and they will not face one until the final.

I think they have a very good chance of reaching the final, but whoever they play there will have had a much harder time of it getting there.

Spain have similarly yet to face a top tier side and have had to go to ET in both their knockout games, plus penalties in one of them. They're far from their best.

Tough match up, but I see them as certainly beatable.

Italy are, of course, the favourites but they had to go to ET against Austria. And they've lost one of their top performing players this tournament in Spinnazola. I don't see England beating them, but there is at least some hope of tiredness creeping in (they've used their squad well sadly) and missing the LB.

On the way there, Denmark are no joke and are ranked in Fifa's top 10, above Germany. Plus whilst they may have lost one of their most dangerous players, their togetherness and motivation is through the roof. They've not played ET and they destroyed a decent Wales.

If we can beat Denmark to get to the Final, no easy prospect, Spain don't have me terrified by any means and maybe Italy's legs will go.

Hoping for ET between Spain and Italy.

All good points, especially about Spinnazola.

That said I’m of the school of thought that FIFA rankings are absolutely meaningless.

They aren't perfect and can be manipulated a bit under certain circumstances, but they're a decent indicator given most people don't watch many International sides play that often.

[windermereROYAL]

Italy are a very good side, but so are we, if we meet them in the final I don`t fear them. both sides don't give much away at the back, it won`t be a free scoring encounter that's for sure.
But we both need to win our SFs first, obviously.

[BR0B0T]

Spain have similarly yet to face a top tier side and have had to go to ET in both their knockout games, plus penalties in one of them. They're far from their best.

Tough match up, but I see them as certainly beatable.

Italy are, of course, the favourites but they had to go to ET against Austria. And they've lost one of their top performing players this tournament in Spinnazola. I don't see England beating them, but there is at least some hope of tiredness creeping in (they've used their squad well sadly) and missing the LB.

On the way there, Denmark are no joke and are ranked in Fifa's top 10, above Germany. Plus whilst they may have lost one of their most dangerous players, their togetherness and motivation is through the roof. They've not played ET and they destroyed a decent Wales.

If we can beat Denmark to get to the Final, no easy prospect, Spain don't have me terrified by any means and maybe Italy's legs will go.

Hoping for ET between Spain and Italy.

All good points, especially about Spinnazola.

That said I’m of the school of thought that FIFA rankings are absolutely meaningless.

They aren't perfect and can be manipulated a bit under certain circumstances, but they're a decent indicator given most people don't watch many International sides play that often.

'decent indicator'...exactly that,

think it's based on some Elo typed ranking system

[St Pauli]

All good points, especially about Spinnazola.

That said I’m of the school of thought that FIFA rankings are absolutely meaningless.

They aren't perfect and can be manipulated a bit under certain circumstances, but they're a decent indicator given most people don't watch many International sides play that often.

'decent indicator'...exactly that,

think it's based on some Elo typed ranking system

Do they rank it on qualifiers and international friendlies?

[BR0B0T]

They aren't perfect and can be manipulated a bit under certain circumstances, but they're a decent indicator given most people don't watch many International sides play that often.

'decent indicator'...exactly that,

think it's based on some Elo typed ranking system

Do they rank it on qualifiers and international friendlies?

dunno, it should be on competitive games

it's obvs how bookmakers set odds as well

----------

England currently at 1.75 which is an implied probability of 57%

England - 1670
Denmark - 1614

Difference (dr) = 56

W_e = 1/(10^(-dr/400) +1)

1/(10^-0.14 + 1) = 0.57989976035

[WestYorksRoyal]

They aren't perfect and can be manipulated a bit under certain circumstances, but they're a decent indicator given most people don't watch many International sides play that often.

'decent indicator'...exactly that,

think it's based on some Elo typed ranking system

Do they rank it on qualifiers and international friendlies?

So, everything counts but different competitions have different weights. The amount of points per win or draw depends upon your opposition's ranking. Higher rank means more points.

In a friendly, points are multiplied by a factor of 1. In qualifiers, a factor of 2. Euros/Copa America/Afcon etc. a factor of 3, and world cup a factor of 4. So to climb up the rankings, be consistent in qualifiers and go deep in tournaments. Not sure how it works for wins/losses or penalties, or what weight is given to the Nations League

[St Pauli]

'decent indicator'...exactly that,

think it's based on some Elo typed ranking system

Do they rank it on qualifiers and international friendlies?

So, everything counts but different competitions have different weights. The amount of points per win or draw depends upon your opposition's ranking. Higher rank means more points.

In a friendly, points are multiplied by a factor of 1. In qualifiers, a factor of 2. Euros/Copa America/Afcon etc. a factor of 3, and world cup a factor of 4. So to climb up the rankings, be consistent in qualifiers and go deep in tournaments. Not sure how it works for wins/losses or penalties, or what weight is given to the Nations League

This system seems to favour nations that don’t take qualifying for granted, and therefore play their strongest sides in every qualifier. For nations that assume they will qualify (and therefore use qualifiers to experiment and are less consistent in them) the above system will underrate them.

Does this explain why in every tournament Belgium and the Netherlands get touted as potential favourites despite the fact they’ve won absolutely f/ck all in decades?

[Brogue]

[Snowflake Royal]

Do they rank it on qualifiers and international friendlies?

So, everything counts but different competitions have different weights. The amount of points per win or draw depends upon your opposition's ranking. Higher rank means more points.

In a friendly, points are multiplied by a factor of 1. In qualifiers, a factor of 2. Euros/Copa America/Afcon etc. a factor of 3, and world cup a factor of 4. So to climb up the rankings, be consistent in qualifiers and go deep in tournaments. Not sure how it works for wins/losses or penalties, or what weight is given to the Nations League

This system seems to favour nations that don’t take qualifying for granted, and therefore play their strongest sides in every qualifier. For nations that assume they will qualify (and therefore use qualifiers to experiment and are less consistent in them) the above system will underrate them.

Does this explain why in every tournament Belgium and the Netherlands get touted as potential favourites despite the fact they’ve won absolutely f/ck all in decades?

Belgium made the Semi's and finished 3rd in the last World Cup, and made the QFs in the last Euros and the 2014 World cup. So they've qualified and gone relatively deep in the last three tournaments (plus QFs in this one when that is factored in).

The Netherlands weren't in any way a favourite pre tournament, and their ranking is 16th. One place above Wales. Which makes them the 11th highest ranked European team.

It's worth remember each tournament will have 4 or 5 favourites and only 2 of them can make the final let alone win it. They made the last 16, but not the last 8, which is pretty much exactly where they're ranked by FIFA.