Is it coming home?

[Scutterbucketz]

I’m not being pessimistic, but I can’t escape the thought that that old familiar feeling of disappointment with England is right round the corner. It’s inherent.

[Brogue]

Even if we do lose to Denmark the tournament has still been a success,right? I mean I would have taken the semi’s before a ball was kicked.

[genome]

I’m not being pessimistic, but I can’t escape the thought that that old familiar feeling of disappointment with England is right round the corner. It’s inherent.

A little bit. Denmark will be really tough and we don't have the best record against them, so I'm bracing myself. Seen loads of people talking about who we will play in the final and I wish they would shut the fcuk up!

[Snowflake Royal]

Even if we do lose to Denmark the tournament has still been a success,right? I mean I would have taken the semi’s before a ball was kicked.

Back to back SFs? You betcha.

I last asked about whether an England Manager had made btb QFs and the answer was:

Sven 3 QFs, no SFs

I believe someone said Ramsey won and then made the next WCQF, in 66 and 70 and the Euros were only 4 teams in 68 so being there doesn't really count.

[URZZZZ]

Even if we do lose to Denmark the tournament has still been a success,right? I mean I would have taken the semi’s before a ball was kicked.

I think so - there are obvious signs of progression

For all the plaudits Southgate got for the 2018 World Cup - I didn’t think we were that great and thought we rode our luck at times

Seem to be more dominant and controlling in games this Euros, and we still haven’t conceded yet which is a fantastic record

Think some teams such as Denmark and Italy have looked more pleasing on the eye than us but ultimately it doesn’t matter if we’re winning games and you know Southgate will be working to mitigate the threat of the attacking strengths of Denmark. Will be an interesting battle IMO

[genome]

It's not so much the consecutive semi finals as it is the slaying of some of our past demons. Since WC 2018 we've won a penalty shoot out, and beaten the Germans in a knockout game. That's massive.

[BR0B0T]

Do they rank it on qualifiers and international friendlies?

Revision of the FIFA / Coca-Cola World Ranking Overview

The new model for calculating the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (FWR) was developed over two years during which time a large number of different algorithms was tested and extensively discussed. Throughout this review and consultation process, the main aim was to identify an algorithm that is not only intuitive, easy to understand and improves overall accuracy of the formula, but also addresses feedback received about the previous model and provides fair and equal opportunities for all teams across all confederations to ascend the FWR.

About the new formula

The Elo method of calculation adds/subtracts points (as opposed to averaging points) for individual matches to/from a team’s existing point total. The points which are added or subtracted are partially determined by the relative strength of the two opponents, including the logical expectation that teams higher in the ranking should fare better against teams lower in the ranking. Elo ratings have been used in other sports for decades. A modified version of the Elo rating is currentlyin use for the FIFA Women's World Ranking.

Termed by FIFA as “SUM”, the new algorithm developed specifically for the new FWR was fine-tuned to reflect a number of FIFA’s considerations, including the following:

Adjusting the game weightings to give:
- less importance to friendly matches and more importance to final round competitions, such as the FIFA World Cup Finals
- more importance to knock-out stage matches than group stage matches in final competitions
- Excluding losses in knock-out rounds of final competitions from the calculation

The formula for the SUM algorithm is as follows:

P = Pbefore + I * (W – W_e)

Pbefore: Points before the match

I: importance of match
- I= 05 Friendly matches played outside of International Match Calendar windows
- I= 10 Friendly matches played during International Match Calendar windows
- I= 15 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions
- I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions
- I= 25 Qualification matches for Confederations final competitions and for FIFA World Cup final competitions
- I= 35 Confederation final competition matches up until the QF stage
- I= 40 Confederation final competition matches from the QF stage onwards; all FIFA Confederations Cup matches
- I= 50 FIFA World Cup final competition matches up until QF stage
- I= 60 FIFA World Cup final competition matches from QF stage onwards

W: result of the match
1 = win; 0.5 = draw; 0 = defeat

W_e: expected result of the match
W_e = 1 / (10 exp (-dr/600) + 1)

With dr=difference in ratings of the two playing teams, i.e. dr = [Pbefore of Team A – Pbefore of TeamB]

Example: Team A has 1300 points before the match and wins a continental qualifier against team B that has 1500 points.

For team A the formula is: P = 1300 + 25 * (1 - (1 / (10 exp (-(1300–1500)/600) +1)))
For team B the formula is: P = 1500 + 25 * (0 - (1 / (10 exp (-(1500-1300)/600) + 1)))

Team A wins 17 points and has P = 1317 points after the match.
Team B loses 17points and has P = 1483 points after the match.

[St Pauli]

So, everything counts but different competitions have different weights. The amount of points per win or draw depends upon your opposition's ranking. Higher rank means more points.

In a friendly, points are multiplied by a factor of 1. In qualifiers, a factor of 2. Euros/Copa America/Afcon etc. a factor of 3, and world cup a factor of 4. So to climb up the rankings, be consistent in qualifiers and go deep in tournaments. Not sure how it works for wins/losses or penalties, or what weight is given to the Nations League

This system seems to favour nations that don’t take qualifying for granted, and therefore play their strongest sides in every qualifier. For nations that assume they will qualify (and therefore use qualifiers to experiment and are less consistent in them) the above system will underrate them.

Does this explain why in every tournament Belgium and the Netherlands get touted as potential favourites despite the fact they’ve won absolutely f/ck all in decades?

Belgium made the Semi's and finished 3rd in the last World Cup, and made the QFs in the last Euros and the 2014 World cup. So they've qualified and gone relatively deep in the last three tournaments (plus QFs in this one when that is factored in).

The Netherlands weren't in any way a favourite pre tournament, and their ranking is 16th. One place above Wales. Which makes them the 11th highest ranked European team.

It's worth remember each tournament will have 4 or 5 favourites and only 2 of them can make the final let alone win it. They made the last 16, but not the last 8, which is pretty much exactly where they're ranked by FIFA.

Well exactly, this kind of kerazy system ends up with Belgium being ranked #1 in the world.

This is why they need to introduce the St Pauli patented algorithm into the mix.

It goes:

Has nation X won anything in the last two decades? If yes: carry on. If no: -y*.

*y=whatever amount of points takes them out of the top 5.

The other st Pauli algorithm is as follows:

Does club x hold the title for the FIFA World Cup(a), runners up(b), or third place(c)?

If a: + a gazillion points.
If b: + a billion points.
If c: + a million points.
If no: apply shitty ranking system.

[Snowflake Royal]

Sounds massively shit.

[Winston Biscuit]

The Winston Theory:

I = X
C = Y
H = Z

X+Y+Z

[Scutterbucketz]

If and when it comes home, do we have to retire Three Lions?

I think we should. I don’t really like the song but it’s stuck in my head and resurfaces for months before any tournament. Now I wake up singing it. Please let us be finally free.

[Winston Biscuit]

Quickly Kevin raised a good point this morning. If we win this tournament then it kind of kills off all the memories of the heroic (and not so heroic) failures that we as a nation like to wallow in yet secretly look back on fondly. They become a little irrelevant if we finally succeed.

[Scutterbucketz]

Yes, the whole song will make no sense anymore.

It will truly be strange for this misery to end. I thought I’d see England win something before I ever saw Reading in the Premier League.

What will we do if it does come home? Anyone got any plans? Would it be worth going to London to join the party there?

[Hendo]

Yes, the whole song will make no sense anymore.

It will truly be strange for this misery to end. I thought I’d see England win something before I ever saw Reading in the Premier League.

What will we do if it does come home? Anyone got any plans? Would it be worth going to London to join the party there?

I’m already planning to go in the office so I’m close to the trophy parade/trophy showing at Trafalgar Square.

[Scutterbucketz]

Yes, the whole song will make no sense anymore.

It will truly be strange for this misery to end. I thought I’d see England win something before I ever saw Reading in the Premier League.

What will we do if it does come home? Anyone got any plans? Would it be worth going to London to join the party there?

I’m already planning to go in the office so I’m close to the trophy parade/trophy showing at Trafalgar Square.

There isn’t going to be one apparently.

I mean jumping in a train on Sunday and heading to trafalgar. Probably won’t tbf.

[Hendo]

Yes, the whole song will make no sense anymore.

It will truly be strange for this misery to end. I thought I’d see England win something before I ever saw Reading in the Premier League.

What will we do if it does come home? Anyone got any plans? Would it be worth going to London to join the party there?

I’m already planning to go in the office so I’m close to the trophy parade/trophy showing at Trafalgar Square.

There isn’t going to be one apparently.

I mean jumping in a train on Sunday and heading to trafalgar. Probably won’t tbf.

Booooo! Nah, I’d much prefer to watch the game at home. Can’t be dealing with the idiots that throw beer in the air when England score their 4th goal in the final

[Scutterbucketz]

I’m already planning to go in the office so I’m close to the trophy parade/trophy showing at Trafalgar Square.

There isn’t going to be one apparently.

I mean jumping in a train on Sunday and heading to trafalgar. Probably won’t tbf.

Booooo! Nah, I’d much prefer to watch the game at home. Can’t be dealing with the idiots that throw beer in the air when England score their 4th goal in the final

No, I mean watch it at home and then jump on a train if we win. Obvs don’t want to up in London just on the off chance that IDCH

[fartdad]

If and when it comes home, do we have to retire Three Lions?

I think we should. I don’t really like the song but it’s stuck in my head and resurfaces for months before any tournament. Now I wake up singing it. Please let us be finally free.

i imagine they just update it the lyrics. they probably wont tho because i imagine they are triggered beyond doubt because people booing national anthems is now a brexit thing and certainly never happened before.

[Winston Biscuit]

It ca-ame home, it ca-ame home it ca-ame, football ca-ame home

That night we spanked Italy, when racists boo'd the kneeee
When covid f*cked up the world, and we topped the death charts
3 lions on the shirt....

[Hendo]

It ca-ame home, it ca-ame home it ca-ame, football ca-ame home

That night we spanked Italy, when racists boo'd the kneeee
When covid f*cked up the world, and we topped the death charts
3 lions on the shirt....

Not 100% sure it scans, but its a start!