How many points will we finish on?

CountryRoyal · by **CountryRoyal** » 21 Feb 2022 14:53

A little bit of hypothetical fun*. Now we’ve got rid Pauno (and without having the luxury of seeing how we play post-Pauno) how will the rest of the season pan out?

I’m going to be outrageously optimistic. Title winning form here on out and we will finish on 56 pts.

Millsy · by **Millsy** » 21 Feb 2022 15:00

43 points.

Stranded · by **Stranded** » 21 Feb 2022 15:02

If the last 2 games are the start of some decent form - we have actually started to play better even if results didn't follow initially - then we could pick up 20 points from the last 14 - so get to 46 points.

Would mean Derby getting 25 from their last 14 to get past us.

But to be honest, I literally have no idea - which is quite refreshing. Tomorrow is massive, another win and suddenly momentum is with us, a defeat will put us back to square 1. At least a draw will keep the little undefeated run going.

Franconian Royal · by **Franconian Royal** » 21 Feb 2022 15:25

Between 37 and 41 points. I want us to get more, but I don't know whether we'll manage it. I think, though, that we'll stay up by the skin of our teeth.

PATRIQT · by **PATRIQT** » 21 Feb 2022 15:27

I can see us picking up another 18 points, and that may not be enough if Derby continue as they are. We need to hope one or two above us get dragged down.

Hound · by **Hound** » 21 Feb 2022 15:30

got absolutely no idea without seeing how we line up etc tomorrow. Will have a stab after that

PATRIQT · by **PATRIQT** » 21 Feb 2022 15:30

Franconian Royal Between 37 and 41 points. I want us to get more, but...

YorkshireRoyal99 · by **YorkshireRoyal99** » 21 Feb 2022 15:37

PATRIQT I can see us picking up another 18 points, and that may not be enough if Derby continue as they are. We need to hope one or two above us get dragged down.

We are talking as if Derby are some really good side that are a force in the league. Their last 8 games they've won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3. Their 3 wins coming against Peterborough, Hull and Sheff United, their 2 draws coming against ourselves and Birmingham and their 3 defeats are against Middlesbrough, Huddersfield and Nottingham Forest.

Fair enough, it's far better than what we've managed in our last 8, but that's not exactly something to write home about considering how poor we have been up until our last couple of results.

Derby's next 5 games are Millwall (H), Luton (A), Cardiff (A), Barnsley (H) and Bournemouth (A). I'd anticipate they'll get something similar, maybe a 2-1-2 record (2 home wins, an away draw at Cardiff and 2 defeats at Bournemouth and Luton). I could even see it being 1-2-2, potentially drawing at home to Millwall.

We could quite easily top that as our next 3 games are Birmingham (H), Blackpool (A) and Millwall (H), all winnable fixtures on paper. Two difficult trips to Forest and Bournemouth follow but as we begin to scrap for points and the season draws to a close, I wouldn't bet against us to pick up a result in one of those fixtures depending on our form.

Stranded · by **Stranded** » 21 Feb 2022 16:02

YorkshireRoyal99
PATRIQT I can see us picking up another 18 points, and that may not be enough if Derby continue as they are. We need to hope one or two above us get dragged down.

We are talking as if Derby are some really good side that are a force in the league. Their last 8 games they've won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3. Their 3 wins coming against Peterborough, Hull and Sheff United, their 2 draws coming against ourselves and Birmingham and their 3 defeats are against Middlesbrough, Huddersfield and Nottingham Forest.

Fair enough, it's far better than what we've managed in our last 8, but that's not exactly something to write home about considering how poor we have been up until our last couple of results.

Derby's next 5 games are Millwall (H), Luton (A), Cardiff (A), Barnsley (H) and Bournemouth (A). I'd anticipate they'll get something similar, maybe a 2-1-2 record (2 home wins, an away draw at Cardiff and 2 defeats at Bournemouth and Luton). I could even see it being 1-2-2, potentially drawing at home to Millwall.

We could quite easily top that as our next 3 games are Birmingham (H), Blackpool (A) and Millwall (H), all winnable fixtures on paper. Two difficult trips to Forest and Bournemouth follow but as we begin to scrap for points and the season draws to a close, I wouldn't bet against us to pick up a result in one of those fixtures depending on our form.

Good post. Anything is possible but the fact is Derby have managed just 1 more win than us this season. The difference to date, is that they have drawn games where we have lost. If Ince/Gilkes can get us into any form of mid-table form, we should be fairly comfortable.

There are signs of a recovery in form there, hopefully those continue.

Derby's home form is superb but their away form is shocking - shows what having a unified fan base can do. Our home form shouldn't continue to be as bad as it has been of late - just a small uptick will see us good.

Looking at our home games - they are pretty favourable - even the sides at the top we are due to play are struggling a bit.

Franconian Royal · by **Franconian Royal** » 21 Feb 2022 16:27

PATRIQT
Franconian Royal Between 37 and 41 points. I want us to get more, but...

nice one PATRIQT

Rusty royal · by **Rusty royal** » 21 Feb 2022 16:27

Derby are still in danger of going bust, they have a week to sort things out or am I barking up the wrong tree?

I have us to gain 45 points and safety, if that looks odds on I may come down and watch a game

YorkshireRoyal99 · by **YorkshireRoyal99** » 21 Feb 2022 16:33

Rusty royal Derby are still in danger of going bust, they have a week to sort things out or am I barking up the wrong tree?

I have us to gain 45 points and safety, if that looks odds on I may come down and watch a game

There is that as well, there is no certainty that they will even exist this time next month and we don't seem any closer to resolving that situation since Mel Morris said that both Middlesbrough and Wycombe should take their claims to him and Middlesbrough said they'd reached an agreement, but that's a couple of weeks ago now.

Of course there will be all sorts going on in the background that we don't know about, but I don't doubt if anything was close we'd know about it by now.

We certainly shouldn't be relying on a club going bust or even hoping for it, but that's still a potential reality yet.

Hound · by **Hound** » 21 Feb 2022 16:36

Haven't they agreed with Wycombe now as well?

But yes, Derby are pretty crap really. If we had been anything other than absolutely dire recently, they'd be down already. losing Lawrence for 3 games isn't going to help their cause either.

I'd certainly like to drag another side in - Birmingham or Hull prob most likely.

Snowflake Royal · by **Snowflake Royal** » 21 Feb 2022 17:02

I'm going to be a coward and give it a couple of games before answering

YorkshireRoyal99 · by **YorkshireRoyal99** » 21 Feb 2022 17:06

They may have agreed something with Wycombe to be fair, I haven't seen anything other than Boro though, admittedly I haven't really been looking.

Derby's form only looks so much better because of how bad ours has been. I wouldn't anticipate we'd be anywhere near as bad as what we have been up until the last couple of results either, and they are still 5 points behind us. It will probably flip flop a bit between now and May, one week we may be 7 points in front, other weeks it may only be 2/3 etc. I think it will come down to the last game or two, I don't think we will pull clear like Hull and Cardiff have done, but I'd back us to have just enough. The next few games are absolutely massive though.

I wouldn't say Hull are anywhere near safe yet, we could quite easily pull them back into the race at the bottom. However, they are probably only going to need another 10 points (ish) survive (that would leave them on 44) from 13 more games. I'd anticipate they'd get that, if they don't get that then they will end up in deep trouble like ourselves and Derby.

PATRIQT · by **PATRIQT** » 21 Feb 2022 17:14

Not sure I agree Derby are as bad as many are saying. Give them back their points they were deducted and they are well clear of a relegation scrap.

Who Moved The Goalposts? · by **Who Moved The Goalposts?** » 21 Feb 2022 18:14

Hound Haven't they agreed with Wycombe now as well?

Don't think so as that case is apparently much more complex and expensive to settle. The worst outcome for me would be Wycombe and Middlesbrough getting massive sums whilst HMRC walk away with 1p in the £. I really hope they tell them to do one if that's the type of offer Derby will make.

Mid Sussex Royal · by **Mid Sussex Royal** » 21 Feb 2022 18:21

If current PPG averages between us and Derby stay the same we stay up by a point, us on 40 them on 39.

And that's following a 7 match losing run for us, and they have a harder run in.

Their form isn't that good, its just the BBC and Low bigging them up

YorkshireRoyal99 · by **YorkshireRoyal99** » 21 Feb 2022 21:10

PATRIQT Not sure I agree Derby are as bad as many are saying. Give them back their points they were deducted and they are well clear of a relegation scrap.

I'm not saying they are bad, far from it, they've given themselves more than a good chance of survival and would very much be a mid table team if they didn't have the points deducted, but a lot of clubs at the bottom end of the table end up performing to mid table standards come this point of the season, just take us under Gomes for example. I think between when he came in against Millwall to the end of the season he had a points per game average that would have seen us on something like 63 points by the end of the campaign.

It all ends up becoming a bit "false" at the bottom as teams scrap for survival, that's why I'm slightly optimistic regarding both Forest and Bournemouth and I don't think we will lose both. Could do (and still probably will), but I wouldn't bet on it.

Royal_jimmy · by **Royal_jimmy** » 29 Apr 2022 12:15

Some good guesses