Rival Watch

[Nameless]

538's mathematics has Huddersfield, Hull & Blackpool going whilst we finish a glorious 16th.

How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?

[Chameleon]

538's mathematics has Huddersfield, Hull & Blackpool going whilst we finish a glorious 16th.

How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?

The way they work is that they aggregate attack and defence scores, so a team that alternates 1-0 and 0-1 will have a better net score than 1-0 and 0-3, so despite us being where we should be on xG match by match (1 more win, 1 less draw than expected) they take an average going forward, which understandably has us dropping a bit. FWIW they have us at roughly equivalent chances of finishing in the playoffs vs getting relegated, with a 75% chance of 7th to 21st, which doesn't feel unfair. It's worth pointing out that despite our lofty position in the table we're only 8 points off the relegation zone - the table is less spread than usual 10 games in.

[Brogue]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

[tidus_mi2]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

I don't particularly dislike Pauno he seems a nice guy but omg Cardiff are fooked if they appoint him.

[Stranded]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

Well that's pushing it a bit. There is a report that he is considering applying almost as a throwaway line stating that Jody Morris is interested.

I'd be amazed if he ends up anywhere near the place but if he does, lump on a Cardiff home win when we go down there.

[Sutekh]

538's mathematics has Huddersfield, Hull & Blackpool going whilst we finish a glorious 16th.

How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?

The way they work is that they aggregate attack and defence scores, so a team that alternates 1-0 and 0-1 will have a better net score than 1-0 and 0-3, so despite us being where we should be on xG match by match (1 more win, 1 less draw than expected) they take an average going forward, which understandably has us dropping a bit. FWIW they have us at roughly equivalent chances of finishing in the playoffs vs getting relegated, with a 75% chance of 7th to 21st, which doesn't feel unfair. It's worth pointing out that despite our lofty position in the table we're only 8 points off the relegation zone - the table is less spread than usual 10 games in.

That would appear correct, after 10 games last season 3rd place in the table (Fulham) was 12 points clear 22nd (Peterborough). The season before that was a similar gap. The Championship table currently is very condensed together with even Coventry looking mid-table if they won the 3 games in hand. Sunderland (5th) are only 5 points from the relegation places. So, overall I’d say it’s still a bit tricky to call any finishing positions at the moment other than SheffU and Norwich (surprise, surprise) who seem to be about right for the eventual promoted sides at the moment.

For the record after 10 games last season 2nd and 3rd placed clubs (Bournemouth and Fulham) were both promoted automatically while none of the rest of the top 6 (WBA, Coventry, Blackburn and Stoke) even made the play offs.

[Stranded]

How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?

The way they work is that they aggregate attack and defence scores, so a team that alternates 1-0 and 0-1 will have a better net score than 1-0 and 0-3, so despite us being where we should be on xG match by match (1 more win, 1 less draw than expected) they take an average going forward, which understandably has us dropping a bit. FWIW they have us at roughly equivalent chances of finishing in the playoffs vs getting relegated, with a 75% chance of 7th to 21st, which doesn't feel unfair. It's worth pointing out that despite our lofty position in the table we're only 8 points off the relegation zone - the table is less spread than usual 10 games in.

That would appear correct, after 10 games last season 3rd place in the table (Fulham) was 12 points clear 22nd (Peterborough). The season before that was a similar gap. The Championship table currently is very condensed together with even Coventry looking mid-table if they won the 3 games in hand. Sunderland (5th) are only 5 points from the relegation places. So, overall I’d say it’s still a bit tricky to call any finishing positions at the moment other than SheffU and Norwich (surprise, surprise) who seem to be about right for the eventual promoted sides at the moment.

For the record after 10 games last season 2nd and 3rd placed clubs (Bournemouth and Fulham) were both promoted automatically while none of the rest of the top 6 (WBA, Coventry, Blackburn and Stoke) even made the play offs.

It is definitely a case this year that, unlike in previous seasons there are no obviously bad sides - Rotherham were expected to struggle from the off, yet sit in 8th with only 1 defeat to their name. Naturally we were supposed to down amongst the dead men from the get go.

Even Huddersfield, who have been poor are not really showing signs of getting cut adrift, although their win v Cardiff was probably key in that. Coventry simply have to win soon but their disjointed start to the campaign could really hurt them - the break may help them and the game against Boro on the 1st is already pretty massive for both clubs. Yes Coventry have 3 games in hand but defeat on Saturday could mean that even winning those will see them stuck in the bottom 3.

To only have the equivalent of 1 win between 5th and 17th shows how key it is for any side to bounce back after a defeat as 2 or 3 of them on the spin could see you plummet, whilst 2 or 3 wins can see you shift from relegation candidates to play-off challengers.

[South Coast Royal]

Makes me wonder what are the ten worst Reading concessions?

Worthy of a thread?

Whitbread at home to Oxford on a very wet (?New Year's) day when he thought the ball had gone out of play .

I think you are thinking of goalie Phil Whitehead. To be fair he did save the ball going out for a corner

Yes, getting my Whiteheads and Whitbreads mixed up.

[John Smith]

Makes me wonder what are the ten worst Reading concessions?

Worthy of a thread?

Whitbread at home to Oxford on a very wet (?New Year's) day when he thought the ball had gone out of play .

Is that the 4-3 game? If it is it was actually at the end of October in 2000. One of the most brilliant games played at the Mad Stad.

Incredible match. The rain in the second half hammering on the roof and a Tony Rougier masterclass.

I'd have to put Birmingham's first on the final day in 2009 up there. Utterly hideous given the circumstances of what was at stake that day and ruined Hahnemann's legacy.

[morganb]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19

[Sutekh]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19

Odds currently have Mark Hudson (current Cardiff caretaker), Jody Morris and Luton’s Nathan Jones leading the way.

Local press in South Wales think next boss also could be Sol Bamba or Craig Bellamy.

Personally don’t think anyone has a clue.

[Stranded]

In form manager "in frame" for vacant job shocker.

If it happens, so be it, but I find it very hard to believe it at this point. He has the chance to build something here with a solid set up. Only reason to move would be financial, if the offer comes.

Still not sure any one would try and snatch Ince after so few games back in the game.

[Brogue]

probably going to finish higher than them this season, then the transfer restrictions should be gone. He's working with his kid which he seems to enjoy. Seems to have a good rapport with the fans. Also worth noting he's from Dagenham so probably quite likes being sort of close to east London. Don't know where he lives but can probably commute daily to us. I just don't see this happening.

And on top of all that Dai would need to give permission for him to go speak to them and there ain't a cat in hell's chance of that happening.

[The Royal Forester]

probably going to finish higher than them this season, then the transfer restrictions should be gone. He's working with his kid which he seems to enjoy. Seems to have a good rapport with the fans. Also worth noting he's from Dagenham so probably quite likes being sort of close to east London. Don't know where he lives but can probably commute daily to us. I just don't see this happening.

And on top of all that Dai would need to give permission for him to go speak to them and there ain't a cat in hell's chance of that happening.

I have read an article somewhere in the press he is sharing a house with Tom in Ascot, so not far to the SCL, Probably car shares as well, helps to keep the cost of petrol down. I believe the rest of his family are still in the Essex area.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Still early days but I don't see why Cardiff is that much a bigger sell than what we are long-term. Yes, short-term financial benefits but the way it's going Ince would probably end up being rewarded with a more lucrative deal at the end of the season and he's only got one more window of restrictions left to work through and then we should/will be free then.

Ince seems to be a building a good set up here and I'd argue our squad is certainly no worse than Cardiff's really, on paper or in practice, as the current table suggests. As said though, early days.

If it does end up being Nathan Jones however, I can see Luton going down after that. Their biggest success stories in recent seasons have come with him at the helm.

[Zip]

Money talks. Cardiff could offer him a fair bit more I guess. However he appears to be living locally with his son and I reckon he loves his son playing for the team he manages.
Expectations are also realistic. He knows. We know. Staying up this season and it’s job done.

I can’t see him leaving.

[windermereROYAL]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19

Building has in one rumour on footyinsider? the top tweet is a direct link to the bottom one, how do you define building please?

[YorkshireRoyal99]

We aren't exactly short of a bob or two ourselves, just not at this moment in time. No reason why we can't verbally agree with Ince a new contract at the end of the campaign depending on our position and status next season, particularly if we end up with a more than respectable finish come the end of the season (mid table and above).

[Franchise FC]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19

Building has in one rumour on footyinsider? the top tweet is a direct link to the bottom one, how do you define building please?

I'm amazed they haven't put two and two together from that article and suggested that Rogers would be in line to replace Ince when he goes to Cardiff

[Royal_jimmy]

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building

I don't particularly dislike Pauno he seems a nice guy but omg Cardiff are fooked if they appoint him.

Please Cardiff hire him