by Clyde1998 »
29 Aug 2023 16:07
Had a look at the Opta stats for League One (
link). In the first five matches, we've had an xGD per game of +0.36: the fifth highest in the division.
League One xG per game (Team; xGF-xGA; xGD):- Peterborough; 1.74-0.93; +0.81
- Bolton; 1.68-0.96; +0.71
- Blackpool; 1.21-0.79; +0.42
- Exeter; 1.19-0.80; +0.39
- Reading; 1.09-0.73; +0.36
- Oxford; 0.92-0.71; +0.21
- Portsmouth; 1.14-1.02; +0.12
- Port Vale; 1.11-1.00; +0.11
- Barnsley; 1.39-1.31; +0.09
- Bristol Rvrs; 1.25-1.22; +0.04
- Derby; 1.32-1.29; +0.03
- Cambridge; 1.05-1.05; +0.00
- Northampton; 0.90-0.93; -0.04
- Wycombe; 1.05-1.09; -0.04
- Stevenage; 1.08-1.14; -0.06
- Lincoln; 0.77-0.99; -0.22
- Burton; 1.14-1.37; -0.22
- Charlton; 1.19-1.44; -0.25
- Carlisle; 0.77-1.05; -0.28
- Leyton Orient; 1.05-1.42; -0.37
- Fleetwood; 0.84-1.25; -0.41
- Shrewsbury; 0.69-1.12; -0.43
- Wigan; 1.19-1.66; -0.47
- Cheltenham; 0.49-1.00; -0.50
So far the biggest over-performers, compared to their actual GD per game is Wigan (+1.27); Lincoln (+1.02); Barnsley (+0.91); Portsmouth (+0.88) and Derby (+0.77). The biggest under-performers are Burton (-0.98); Port Vale (-0.91); Fleetwood (-0.79); Wycombe (-0.76) and Cheltenham (-0.70).
In terms of the net chances created and conceded, we've been a top end side this season. We've got the second best xGA in the league (0.73 per game), with only Oxford (0.71 per game) doing better; we're mid-table for xGF. Compared to actual goals scored and conceded we're scoring 0.29 goals less per game than expected and conceding 0.07 more than expected.
Sides usually trend towards their xG as the season progresses, this suggests our league position will improve as the season goes on (assuming similar figures xG over the season).