MATCHWATCH : Oxford United (a)

[Stranded]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

[WestYorksRoyal]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Also, we had good runs which didn't last under Pauno and Ince but they were in the Championship. It has surprised me how much worse L1 is, obviously you would expect a drop off but the gulf is vast aside from a tiny overlap of 2 or 3 sides in each division. When Ince had us top as the start of last season, we all knew there was no way we'd keep it up. Whereas I see no reason why we can't keep this going because our opponents are at least as bad as us, and the shock is how we did so badly until November.

[Snowflake Royal]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Yeah, I'm probably a bit pessimistic after previous false dawns. 1.5 odd ppg is absolutely where this squad should be over a season.

More next season with a similar squad. If we exist.

[URZZZZ]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Also, we had good runs which didn't last under Pauno and Ince but they were in the Championship. It has surprised me how much worse L1 is, obviously you would expect a drop off but the gulf is vast aside from a tiny overlap of 2 or 3 sides in each division. When Ince had us top as the start of last season, we all knew there was no way we'd keep it up. Whereas I see no reason why we can't keep this going because our opponents are at least as bad as us, and the shock is how we did so badly until November.

Really don’t think the Championship is all that either in honesty. Aside from the three relegated teams, there doesn’t seem to be too much quality there. Of the three promoted teams last season, Ipswich have been in the top 6 all season and Plymouth are more than holding their own. Sheffield struggling but they’re another awfully run club. The real jump is from the Championship to the Prem, which is why you keep getting the same teams going up and down!

Makes a mockery of Ince considering how negative he set his team up through the season, even against some really average sides. If anything encapsulates the last few months of his tenure, it was the players strolling around the pitch like there was no care in the world in the 90th minute against a very poor Birmingham side in what was IMO, a must win game. We fell into the bottom three that day and never climbed out again

[YorkshireRoyal99]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Yeah, I'm probably a bit pessimistic after previous false dawns. 1.5 odd ppg is absolutely where this squad should be over a season.

More next season with a similar squad. If we exist.

I just think we have also become a harder team to beat in general really. We aren't getting blown away in games, defensively we have improved significantly, although far from perfect and in general we do stay in games. Since a really bad run in November where we did suffer some shocking defeats, it does seem as if we've got some little things that have gone more in our favour. A threatening striker always helps, but Wing came back into the side consistently, Azeez and Knibbs' form picked up and we began to put together a settled side.

Agree with Ady Williams to an extent, you can't draw your way out of a relegation fight, but out of the draws we've had in recent games, they haven't been bad points to pick up either. Oxford and Peterborough are up there, Leyton Orient were probably also a "better" opponent than a lot of others we've faced etc.

[Stranded]

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Yeah, I'm probably a bit pessimistic after previous false dawns. 1.5 odd ppg is absolutely where this squad should be over a season.

More next season with a similar squad. If we exist.

I just think we have also become a harder team to beat in general really. We aren't getting blown away in games, defensively we have improved significantly, although far from perfect and in general we do stay in games. Since a really bad run in November where we did suffer some shocking defeats, it does seem as if we've got some little things that have gone more in our favour. A threatening striker always helps, but Wing came back into the side consistently, Azeez and Knibbs' form picked up and we began to put together a settled side.

Agree with Ady Williams to an extent, you can't draw your way out of a relegation fight, but out of the draws we've had in recent games, they haven't been bad points to pick up either. Oxford and Peterborough are up there, Leyton Orient were probably also a "better" opponent than a lot of others we've faced etc.

Over the last 10 games, Orient are a top 4 side - over the last 6 games, they are the best side in the division - it was a good point, the only disappointment there is we played so well in the first half that we should have had a couple and Orient's only goal came from a brain fart moment giving them a penalty.

Agreed the draws in isolation have been good results - 2 draws v Oxford (local derby), draw at Peterborough (4th in home record table), draw with Orient as mentioned. Even Cheltenham having been 2 down was a decent result.

The issue for me still remains winning games away from home - we've still only managed 1 win in 14 away games and our run in away is (position in brackets)

Stevenage (6th)
Fleetwood (23rd)
Pompey (1st)
Carlisle (24th)
Derby (2nd)
Bristol Rovers (10th)
Bolton (3rd)
Barnsley (5th)
Burton (18th)

So 5 of the current top 6 to play and the bottom 2 - we need to find a way to actually win away and whilst you pick out the Fleetwood, Carlisle & Burton games as the ones to target - the longer we go without another away win, the more the pressure could and will crank up at home.

[WestYorksRoyal]

People are getting too much into the "we need wins" narrative. We've had a tough run of fixtures and got plenty of points. This continues until Pompey away, after which we really have a winnable run of games. The points against Lincoln, Peterborough, Cheltenham, Orient and Oxford x2 are all good results. Oxford (H) perhaps disappointing given their form, and we absolutely should have won the game at Lincoln which we dominated. But none of them are bad results. And those 6 points have made a difference; imagine if we'd lost 3 of them.

But we have a run of games coming against Charlton, Port Vale, Fleetwood, Carlisle, Shrewsbury and Wycombe where a draw genuinely is a bad result. These are where we get the wins to pull away.

[Millsy]

We need wins.

[Hendo]

People are getting too much into the "we need wins" narrative. We've had a tough run of fixtures and got plenty of points. This continues until Pompey away, after which we really have a winnable run of games. The points against Lincoln, Peterborough, Cheltenham, Orient and Oxford x2 are all good results. Oxford (H) perhaps disappointing given their form, and we absolutely should have won the game at Lincoln which we dominated. But none of them are bad results. And those 6 points have made a difference; imagine if we'd lost 3 of them.

Came from behind in all 6 as well to get points, something that wouldn't have happened even last year. Squad is getting mentally tougher.

[Brogue]

I mean we could literally draw our way out of relegation. 17 games left 17 points puts us on 45. Which isn’t far off what’s needed to stay up.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I mean we could literally draw our way out of relegation. 17 games left 17 points puts us on 45. Which isn’t far off what’s needed to stay up.

Taking out the curtailed Covid season, that would have kept us up for 1 season of the previous 5, with MK Dons going down on 45 last season. Most other teams between the 46-48 point mark. I reckon we get to 50, that'll be enough, we will be very unlucky to go down on that if we do (although Plymouth did back in 18-19).

Interesting to note that out of the 5 seasons I have looked at, not many clubs have returned to L1 or above in that time (including Covid season). Will exclude Bury for obvious reasons, however only 4 of the 19 relegated sides are back in L1 or above. Those being Northampton, Bolton, Bristol Rovers and Plymouth. The rest remain in L2 or lower.

Out of the current lot this season as well, I'm not sure how many would be a shoe-in for a certain return to L1. Carlisle, Fleetwood, Cheltenham and ourselves.

[WestYorksRoyal]

I mean we could literally draw our way out of relegation. 17 games left 17 points puts us on 45. Which isn’t far off what’s needed to stay up.

Taking out the curtailed Covid season, that would have kept us up for 1 season of the previous 5, with MK Dons going down on 45 last season. Most other teams between the 46-48 point mark. I reckon we get to 50, that'll be enough, we will be very unlucky to go down on that if we do (although Plymouth did back in 18-19).

Interesting to note that out of the 5 seasons I have looked at, not many clubs have returned to L1 or above in that time (including Covid season). Will exclude Bury for obvious reasons, however only 4 of the 19 relegated sides are back in L1 or above. Those being Northampton, Bolton, Bristol Rovers and Plymouth. The rest remain in L2 or lower.

Out of the current lot this season as well, I'm not sure how many would be a shoe-in for a certain return to L1. Carlisle, Fleetwood, Cheltenham and ourselves.

If we got new owners and stability, our return would be "when", not "if". An immediate return may not be on the cards given the smoulder mess Dai is leaving behind, but we would be an absolutely massive club in L2. Convince managers, players etc., that we've put this terrible era behind us and watch the best of them available compete to come and join.

[Sutekh]

I mean we could literally draw our way out of relegation. 17 games left 17 points puts us on 45. Which isn’t far off what’s needed to stay up.

Taking out the curtailed Covid season, that would have kept us up for 1 season of the previous 5, with MK Dons going down on 45 last season. Most other teams between the 46-48 point mark. I reckon we get to 50, that'll be enough, we will be very unlucky to go down on that if we do (although Plymouth did back in 18-19).

Interesting to note that out of the 5 seasons I have looked at, not many clubs have returned to L1 or above in that time (including Covid season). Will exclude Bury for obvious reasons, however only 4 of the 19 relegated sides are back in L1 or above. Those being Northampton, Bolton, Bristol Rovers and Plymouth. The rest remain in L2 or lower.

Out of the current lot this season as well, I'm not sure how many would be a shoe-in for a certain return to L1. Carlisle, Fleetwood, Cheltenham and ourselves.

If we got new owners and stability, our return would be "when", not "if". An immediate return may not be on the cards given the smoulder mess Dai is leaving behind, but we would be an absolutely massive club in L2. Convince managers, players etc., that we've put this terrible era behind us and watch the best of them available compete to come and join.

Even Parky?

[SCIAG]

If we got new owners and stability, our return would be "when", not "if". An immediate return may not be on the cards given the smoulder mess Dai is leaving behind, but we would be an absolutely massive club in L2. Convince managers, players etc., that we've put this terrible era behind us and watch the best of them available compete to come and join.

Given a long enough timeframe anything is possible.

What does a "massive club" really mean in this context? Our average attendance puts us 5th in League One and in the long run that would probably translate to better results. But Notts County have a similar average attendance and it's ten years since they were at this level.

[WestYorksRoyal]

If we got new owners and stability, our return would be "when", not "if". An immediate return may not be on the cards given the smoulder mess Dai is leaving behind, but we would be an absolutely massive club in L2. Convince managers, players etc., that we've put this terrible era behind us and watch the best of them available compete to come and join.

Given a long enough timeframe anything is possible.

What does a "massive club" really mean in this context? Our average attendance puts us 5th in League One and in the long run that would probably translate to better results. But Notts County have a similar average attendance and it's ten years since they were at this level.

I'm probably over simplifying. More fans and better facilities means more money with which to attract players. But if you use it to attract money chasing journeymen it gets you nowhere. So you do need to run yourselves well. But if we did do that, we'd find ourselves climbing through L2 and L1 quickly.