CONFRIMED: Latest rumours Confrimed as Unconfrimed

[WestYorksRoyal]

Dai basically made two mistakes, but they're both pretty bad.

1) Put too much of his own money into the squad rather than follow the profit and sustainability rules (which would probably have led to better recruitment), ultimately forcing us to work under EFL sanctions for years on end.

2) Ran out of liquidity.

Other than that, he helped fund the training ground, he kept ticket prices at far below the market rate, and he subsidised away travel.

It's been said to death but if he sells Moore and doesn't sign Aluko and Puscas (combined with generally more sensible recruitment and retention) then we wouldn't be in this mess. Although if Dai ran out of money when we were in the Championship we'd have been in a bigger mess so maybe that's not a great line of argument.

Those small changes only swing it to about £160m lost in 6 years, from £190m. Not enough to prevent the mess, just delay it

The fundamentals were so wrong that individual decisions or details would not have made a big difference. Just imagine if we beat Huddersfield at Wembley, it would have been the same mistakes on steroids. At least our issues now are of a size that the likes of SCL can help us out. What if we were dealing with a £5m monthly shortfall instead of £1m?

[blythspartan]

I think this is a good read about the current takeover situation.
https://t.co/yH2RDpcaXu

[Pepe the Horseman]

Marc Bircham and friends out of the running according to itk Eddie.

[MouldyRoyal]

Feels like we are down to the final option then

[WestYorksRoyal]

So 2 parties left, one of which is reported to be Genevra. The other will either be Chiron Sports Group or the Minnesota Vikings guys.

Eddie reporting Sports.com walked because they didn't want to put in a deposit to cover the shortfall while Dai still had the power to pull the plug. Perfectly rational decision given who they're negotiating with.

Positive and negative spins available. The remaining parties must really want us to take such a risk covering the shortfall (good). They must be total idiots to want to buy a club in such a mess and dance to Dai's tune (bad).

Can't get away from what that Mike Gow guy said about the Chinese way of doing business. In the West we like to look at valuation models, balance sheets etc., and agree a fair price. It's subjective but ultimately people playing the same game. In Dai's culture, there is only one Reading FC and he owns it. If anyone else wants it, they have to pay what Dai thinks it's worth, and if they want it that badly he'll use that as leverage. It's no wonder the sale is so difficult.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

[WestYorksRoyal]

I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.

Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

[Lower West]

Positive and negative spins available. The remaining parties must really want us to take such a risk covering the shortfall (good). They must be total idiots to want to buy a club in such a mess and dance to Dai's tune (bad).

To fund the shortfall they'll either want some security (as did the Wycombe guy) or their offer will be materially lower to reflect the risk. There's no free lunches to be had. No shortage of football clubs to buy. With around 50% of EFL clubs technically insolvent and totally dependent upon the ongoing financial support of their owners. Football is in a sorry state.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Marc Bircham and friends out of the running according to nitk Eddie.

C4Y

[tmesis]

I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.

Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?

[WestYorksRoyal]

If any private equity firm or hedge fund want an idea of the potential prize, Ipswich's owners just sold a 40% stake for £105m, valuing them at a whopping £262.5m. I think some is ringfenced for investment in infrastructure and staff as opposed to buying the shares. But it shows what returns can be generated if you turn around an underperforming club. Maybe Dai's price isn't so ridiculous.

[Franchise FC]

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.

Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?

As I see it, part of the problem is that it appears that whatever money he gets is going to be seized bu the Chinese government.
If that’s the case, and I appreciate it’s still a bit of guesswork, then he has no incentive to sell at all

[WestYorksRoyal]

Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?

As I see it, part of the problem is that it appears that whatever money he gets is going to be seized bu the Chinese government.
If that’s the case, and I appreciate it’s still a bit of guesswork, then he has no incentive to sell at all

Very much guesswork. But if the Chinese government can seize his proceeds, surely they can also force him to sell an asset where it can be seen there is a market? I thought they can basically do anything they want tbh.

[Lower West]

Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?

As I see it, part of the problem is that it appears that whatever money he gets is going to be seized bu the Chinese government.
If that’s the case, and I appreciate it’s still a bit of guesswork, then he has no incentive to sell at all

Is Dai pulling the strings in China? I suspect not. There's many £ millions at stake in this transaction. Dai isn't the one losing out financially either. This money will go towards repaying bank borrowings.

[blythspartan]

I hope more than anything I am wrong, but I think we’ll get to 2 April with no news. The club will go silent apart from the usual tweets from admin and in the middle of April news will slowly filter out confirming that takeover talks have collapsed. I don’t trust Dai to sell the club.

[Snowflake Royal]

I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.

Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

Yep. Been saying since about December that until a new owner is official we're on a ticking clock to oblivion with the deadline in June/July.

For all the noise. Nothing has changed. Except the amount of time left.

[Hound]

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.

Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

Yep. Been saying since about December that until a new owner is official we're on a ticking clock to oblivion with the deadline in June/July.

For all the noise. Nothing has changed. Except the amount of time left.

Broadly agree which is why I’ve certainly not been getting over excited

One thing that may have changed is stripping out Bearwood and selling off looks a whole lot harder than he’d hoped. How much influence that will have - who knows.

[SCIAG]

Dai basically made two mistakes, but they're both pretty bad.

1) Put too much of his own money into the squad rather than follow the profit and sustainability rules (which would probably have led to better recruitment), ultimately forcing us to work under EFL sanctions for years on end.

2) Ran out of liquidity.

Other than that, he helped fund the training ground, he kept ticket prices at far below the market rate, and he subsidised away travel.

It's been said to death but if he sells Moore and doesn't sign Aluko and Puscas (combined with generally more sensible recruitment and retention) then we wouldn't be in this mess. Although if Dai ran out of money when we were in the Championship we'd have been in a bigger mess so maybe that's not a great line of argument.

Those small changes only swing it to about £160m lost in 6 years, from £190m. Not enough to prevent the mess, just delay it

HTH.

(But notwithstanding, we'd be much further from relegation if we had an extra £30m to pay wages and the taxman with right now)

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Dai basically made two mistakes, but they're both pretty bad.

1) Put too much of his own money into the squad rather than follow the profit and sustainability rules (which would probably have led to better recruitment), ultimately forcing us to work under EFL sanctions for years on end.

2) Ran out of liquidity.

Other than that, he helped fund the training ground, he kept ticket prices at far below the market rate, and he subsidised away travel.

It's been said to death but if he sells Moore and doesn't sign Aluko and Puscas (combined with generally more sensible recruitment and retention) then we wouldn't be in this mess. Although if Dai ran out of money when we were in the Championship we'd have been in a bigger mess so maybe that's not a great line of argument.

Those small changes only swing it to about £160m lost in 6 years, from £190m. Not enough to prevent the mess, just delay it

HTH.

(But notwithstanding, we'd be much further from relegation if we had an extra £30m to pay wages and the taxman with right now)

Well, quite.