England v Switzerland

[BRO_BOT]

Yeah well, you can prove anything with facts!

2016 Euros - 2nd to Wales in group, lost to Iceland...fair dos we were shite

2014 WC - Out in Group stage
[Uruguay (10th), Italy (11th), England (13th), Costa Rica (16th)

2012 Euros - 1st round to Italy
Italy FIFA ranked 4th , England ranked 6th. Italy made the final.

2010 WC - lost to Germany in 2nd round
Germany ranked 4th in Fifa World rankings, England were 7th. Germany made the semi-final

2008 Euros - Failed to Qualify

2006 WC QFs Portugal FiFA ranked 7th, England ranked 10th

2004 Euros - first knockout round: beaten by hosts Portugal who were FiFa ranked 8th, we were 7th. Portugal made the finals

2002 WC - - out in QFs to Brazil FIFA ranked 2nd, England ranked 11th. Brazil won the competition

...etc


Gareth Soutgate

2018 WC: finished 4th. England ranked 12th
Lost: Belgium (3), KO: Croatia (20)
Beat: Paraguay (32), Tunisia (21), KO: Columbia (16), Sweden (24)

2020 Euros: Runners Up England ranked 4th
Lost: KO: Italy (13)
Drew: Scotland (50)
Beat: Croatia (6), Czechs (45), KO: Germany (15), Ukraine (24), Denmark (16)


2022 WC: QF to France. England ranked 5th
Lost: KO: France (4)
Drew: USA (14)
Beat: Iran (23), Wales (19), KO: Senegal (18)

2024 Euros: semi-final England ranked 5th
Lost:
Drew: Denmark (21), Slovenia (57)
Beat: Serbia (32), KO: Slovakia (45), Switzerland (19)

[BRO_BOT]

It seems fairly consistent. Play anyone with a better or similar ranking and we tend to get beat.

Previous to Southgate we tended to face better-ranked teams* earlier in the knock-out phase of the competition

With Southgate, we have tended to avoid higher-ranking teams until the latter stages of the knockout phase. The first time we met a higher-ranked team relatively early in the knockout phase we were beaten



*that often went on to do well in the comp (SF or better)

[Sutekh]

Yeah well, you can prove anything with facts!

2016 Euros - 2nd to Wales in group, lost to Iceland...fair dos we were shite

2014 WC - Out in Group stage
[Uruguay (10th), Italy (11th), England (13th), Costa Rica (16th)

2012 Euros - 1st round to Italy
Italy FIFA ranked 4th , England ranked 6th. Italy made the final.

2010 WC - lost to Germany in 2nd round
Germany ranked 4th in Fifa World rankings, England were 7th. Germany made the semi-final

2008 Euros - Failed to Qualify

2006 WC QFs Portugal FiFA ranked 7th, England ranked 10th

2004 Euros - first knockout round: beaten by hosts Portugal who were FiFa ranked 8th, we were 7th. Portugal made the finals

2002 WC - - out in QFs to Brazil FIFA ranked 2nd, England ranked 11th. Brazil won the competition

...etc


Gareth Soutgate

2018 WC: finished 4th. England ranked 12th
Lost: Belgium (3), KO: Croatia (20)
Beat: Paraguay (32), Tunisia (21), KO: Columbia (16), Sweden (24)

2020 Euros: Runners Up England ranked 4th
Lost: KO: Italy (13)
Drew: Scotland (50)
Beat: Croatia (6), Czechs (45), KO: Germany (15), Ukraine (24), Denmark (16)


2022 WC: QF to France. England ranked 5th
Lost: KO: France (4)
Drew: USA (14)
Beat: Iran (23), Wales (19), KO: Senegal (18)

2024 Euros: semi-final England ranked 5th
Lost:
Drew: Denmark (21), Slovenia (57)
Beat: Serbia (32), KO: Slovakia (45), Switzerland (19)

England didn't win or lose the actual games v Italy and Switzerland, they drew. Penalties are just the current lottery required by the tournament organisers to seperate teams in drawn knockout matches. It was tossing a coin at one time

[Snowflake Royal]

Yeah well, you can prove anything with facts!

2016 Euros - 2nd to Wales in group, lost to Iceland...fair dos we were shite

2014 WC - Out in Group stage
[Uruguay (10th), Italy (11th), England (13th), Costa Rica (16th)

2012 Euros - 1st round to Italy
Italy FIFA ranked 4th , England ranked 6th. Italy made the final.

2010 WC - lost to Germany in 2nd round
Germany ranked 4th in Fifa World rankings, England were 7th. Germany made the semi-final

2008 Euros - Failed to Qualify

2006 WC QFs Portugal FiFA ranked 7th, England ranked 10th

2004 Euros - first knockout round: beaten by hosts Portugal who were FiFa ranked 8th, we were 7th. Portugal made the finals

2002 WC - - out in QFs to Brazil FIFA ranked 2nd, England ranked 11th. Brazil won the competition

...etc


Gareth Soutgate

2018 WC: finished 4th. England ranked 12th
Lost: Belgium (3), KO: Croatia (20)
Beat: Paraguay (32), Tunisia (21), KO: Columbia (16), Sweden (24)

2020 Euros: Runners Up England ranked 4th
Lost: KO: Italy (13)
Drew: Scotland (50)
Beat: Croatia (6), Czechs (45), KO: Germany (15), Ukraine (24), Denmark (16)


2022 WC: QF to France. England ranked 5th
Lost: KO: France (4)
Drew: USA (14)
Beat: Iran (23), Wales (19), KO: Senegal (18)

2024 Euros: semi-final England ranked 5th
Lost:
Drew: Denmark (21), Slovenia (57)
Beat: Serbia (32), KO: Slovakia (45), Switzerland (19)

England didn't win or lose the actual games v Italy and Switzerland, they drew. Penalties are just the current lottery required by the tournament organisers to seperate teams in drawn knockout matches. It was tossing a coin at one time

You think penalties are a coin toss and lottery, immediately after we just proved players who are well prepared and capable at penalties flawlessly smashed it?

When our previous record was terrible, generally under managers who often didn’t think practicing them was important?

[Sanguine]

Actually beginning to really enjoy a) how important it is to Brober to denigrate the only manager in his lifetime to lead England to any sustained success, and b) RR (and others of his ilk) so desperately wanting Southgate to fail that they claim they won't get much joy from England winning the tournament. Deary me.

[BRO_BOT]

Actually beginning to really enjoy a) how important it is to Brober to denigrate the only manager in his lifetime to lead England to any sustained success, and b) RR (and others of his ilk) so desperately wanting Southgate to fail that they claim they won't get much joy from England winning the tournament. Deary me.

I was just interested to see if it was the case that Southgate has been a bit lucky. I also have a blocked sinus at the mo which prevents me from doing any serious work (slight headache etc). It passed the time

I was actually thinking about it the other way around. Previously, I felt we tended to get beaten early in the knockout phase by a team that went on to do well in the tournament i.e. bad luck!

I also don't give a fcuk how we go about winning a tournament. It's all about the results. However, the previous outcomes indicate that when England faces opposition with a similar ranking, we get defeated. I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

[bcubed]

Actually beginning to really enjoy a) how important it is to Brober to denigrate the only manager in his lifetime to lead England to any sustained success, and b) RR (and others of his ilk) so desperately wanting Southgate to fail that they claim they won't get much joy from England winning the tournament. Deary me.

I was just interested to see if it was the case that Southgate has been a bit lucky. I also have a blocked sinus at the mo which prevents me from doing any serious work (slight headache etc). It passed the time

I was actually thinking about it the other way around. Previously, I felt we tended to get beaten early in the knockout phase by a team that went on to do well in the tournament i.e. bad luck!

I also don't give a fcuk how we go about winning a tournament. It's all about the results. However, the previous outcomes indicate that when England faces opposition with a similar ranking, we get defeated. I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

Thought it was an interesting analysis fwiw

[Sanguine]

I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

I definitely know what the narrative will be if we do win.

[Snowflake Royal]

I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

I definitely know what the narrative will be if we do win.

Given they're ranked 7th in the world and fairly convincingly through to the semi's of a tournament its pretty clear what it will be.

We're not talking about a group stage victory over a middling name but highly ranked Croatia, or a knock out win vs a big name but poorly ranked Germany.

[Sutekh]

I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

Who are the "too many key individuals"?

[BRO_BOT]

I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

Who are the "too many key individuals"?

De Ligt, De Jong (big loss), Blind and a couple of others. Pre-tournament injuries

[tulip]

I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

Who are the "too many key individuals"?

De Ligt, De Jong (big loss), Blind and a couple of others. Pre-tournament injuries

Been missing the whole tournament though. Blind played a few minutes in the the quarters and de Ligt is on the bench.

[BRO_BOT]

Who are the "too many key individuals"?

De Ligt, De Jong (big loss), Blind and a couple of others. Pre-tournament injuries

Been missing the whole tournament though. Blind played a few minutes in the the quarters and de Ligt is on the bench.

My point was more along the lines of if you're missing key players you're not 'really' the 7th-ranked team (pre-tournament).

W_e = 1 / (10^(-dr/400) + 1)

ELO_FIFA Rankings:

England: 1787
Netherlands: 1746

dr = 1787 -1746 = 41

win_expectation = 1 / (10^-(41/400) + 1) = .55 (55%) = 1.82 (odds) (about 4/5 for the dinosaurs)

Minus the over round it's in line with what's offered:



ELO_ratings_expected_goals :

England: 1968
Netherlands: 1959

win_expectation = 1 / (10^-(9/400) + 1) = .51 or about 1.9 (odds)

[Royal Rother]

Actually beginning to really enjoy a) how important it is to Brober to denigrate the only manager in his lifetime to lead England to any sustained success, and b) RR (and others of his ilk) so desperately wanting Southgate to fail that they claim they won't get much joy from England winning the tournament. Deary me.

Oh yes I can tell.

All that anyone with a balanced mind should read from my posts is that I enjoy adventurous football and find boring safety first football (particularly when it does not utilise the strengths available) frustrating and hardly worth my time, no matter the result.

The style and spectacle is more important than the result to me. Personalities do come into it (I will always be anti-Mourinho!), but first and foremost it's a game, a form of entertainment to me, that's all.

I gave up on Southgate's football and management 5+ years ago, but have said time after time after time how much I like and respect the man himself, and the way he has managed the people under his charge. Perhaps SSC aside, I can't think of a more likeable manager EVER in my lifetime of watching football - I just don't like how he approaches the task of winning football matches.

It may be (well, it clearly IS) a different perspective to yours (which, incidentally, I fully understand) but it's really not that hard to get.

[Sanguine]

Actually beginning to really enjoy a) how important it is to Brober to denigrate the only manager in his lifetime to lead England to any sustained success, and b) RR (and others of his ilk) so desperately wanting Southgate to fail that they claim they won't get much joy from England winning the tournament. Deary me.

Oh yes I can tell.

All that anyone with a balanced mind should read from my posts is that I enjoy adventurous football and find boring safety first football (particularly when it does not utilise the strengths available) frustrating and hardly worth my time, no matter the result.

The style and spectacle is more important than the result to me. Personalities do come into it (I will always be anti-Mourinho!), but first and foremost it's a game, a form of entertainment to me, that's all.

I gave up on Southgate's football and management 5+ years ago, but have said time after time after time how much I like and respect the man himself, and the way he has managed the people under his charge. Perhaps SSC aside, I can't think of a more likeable manager EVER in my lifetime of watching football - I just don't like how he approaches the task of winning football matches.

It may be (well, it clearly IS) a different perspective to yours (which, incidentally, I fully understand) but it's really not that hard to get.

Sure, understood. And let's be honest, we are of a generation that has watched England teams play shit football and at the same time go out of tournaments early, so anything is an improvement on that. But yeah, broadly I'd sooner we get further in tournaments than (to the extreme) play entertaining stuff and lose 4-2.

I do think that generally speaking if you take all the managers and teams that 'should' be winning major tournaments, you quickly run out of tournaments to actually win.

[tulip]

De Ligt, De Jong (big loss), Blind and a couple of others. Pre-tournament injuries

Been missing the whole tournament though. Blind played a few minutes in the the quarters and de Ligt is on the bench.

My point was more along the lines of if you're missing key players you're not 'really' the 7th-ranked team (pre-tournament).

W_e = 1 / (10^(-dr/400) + 1)

ELO_FIFA Rankings:

England: 1787
Netherlands: 1746

dr = 1787 -1746 = 41

win_expectation = 1 / (10^-(41/400) + 1) = .55 (55%) = 1.82 (odds) (about 4/5 for the dinosaurs)

Minus the over round it's in line with what's offered:



ELO_ratings_expected_goals :

England: 1968
Netherlands: 1959

win_expectation = 1 / (10^-(9/400) + 1) = .51 or about 1.9 (odds)

None of that means a thing to me. Football is played on the pitch, not a bunch of meaningless stats.

[BRO_BOT]

I'm hoping that the Netherlands are missing too many key individuals to be any good

I definitely know what the narrative will be if we do win.

Listen, if we were to win the tournament I'd have quite happily named my first-born Gareth etc etc. I really hope we win, I don't care how. I also don't give a fcuk if Holland feel unlucky because key players were injured. Tough shit. Well done Gai. Onto to the next game against Spain

I just don't think he'll do a good job in club management. His previous experience was getting 'boro relegated and avoiding high-ranked teams in tournaments.

Also, the reason I put faith in the rankings is that an entire industry is based around them. There will be 100s of millions wagered on this tournament.

[BRO_BOT]

Been missing the whole tournament though. Blind played a few minutes in the the quarters and de Ligt is on the bench.

My point was more along the lines of if you're missing key players you're not 'really' the 7th-ranked team (pre-tournament).

W_e = 1 / (10^(-dr/400) + 1)

ELO_FIFA Rankings:

England: 1787
Netherlands: 1746

dr = 1787 -1746 = 41

win_expectation = 1 / (10^-(41/400) + 1) = .55 (55%) = 1.82 (odds) (about 4/5 for the dinosaurs)

Minus the over round it's in line with what's offered:



ELO_ratings_expected_goals :

England: 1968
Netherlands: 1959

win_expectation = 1 / (10^-(9/400) + 1) = .51 or about 1.9 (odds)

None of that means a thing to me. Football is played on the pitch, not a bunch of meaningless stats.

oops, wasn't supposed to be in your reply

but obvs you're wrong about the stats, it's just pre-game win expectation based upon the strength of the teams participating.

[BRO_BOT]

But whilst I'm at it If you calculate the Brier score of those ratings after the tournament it'll be a lot closer to 0 (good) than 1 (bad)

The Brier Score is a strictly proper score function or strictly proper scoring rule that measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. For unidimensional predictions, it is strictly equivalent to the mean squared error as applied to predicted probabilities.

[BRO_BOT]

Actually beginning to really enjoy a) how important it is to Brober to denigrate the only manager in his lifetime to lead England to any sustained success, and b) RR (and others of his ilk) so desperately wanting Southgate to fail that they claim they won't get much joy from England winning the tournament. Deary me.

Oh yes I can tell.

All that anyone with a balanced mind should read from my posts is that I enjoy adventurous football and find boring safety first football (particularly when it does not utilise the strengths available) frustrating and hardly worth my time, no matter the result.

The style and spectacle is more important than the result to me. Personalities do come into it (I will always be anti-Mourinho!), but first and foremost it's a game, a form of entertainment to me, that's all.

I gave up on Southgate's football and management 5+ years ago, but have said time after time after time how much I like and respect the man himself, and the way he has managed the people under his charge. Perhaps SSC aside, I can't think of a more likeable manager EVER in my lifetime of watching football - I just don't like how he approaches the task of winning football matches.

It may be (well, it clearly IS) a different perspective to yours (which, incidentally, I fully understand) but it's really not that hard to get.

Sure, understood. And let's be honest, we are of a generation that has watched England teams play shit football and at the same time go out of tournaments early, so anything is an improvement on that. But yeah, broadly I'd sooner we get further in tournaments than (to the extreme) play entertaining stuff and lose 4-2.

+1

Man Utd were 'lucky' to beat Coventry in the FA Cup. I'd have been happy if Utd had beat City with only one shot (that was going well wide before a lucky deflected o.g.). The fact that we got a good performance was a bonus