by stealthpapes »
07 Dec 2024 12:22
Snowflake Royal stealthpapes skipper Do we still get the "new manager bounce"?
It was conspicuous by its absence last time.
And most if the times before that.Why would we get a bounce, we haven't sacked Selles for being shit, he's left for being good. I know that's a fairly shocking state of affairs for an RFC managerial change this last almost 15 years.
Not sure how this holds up.
Paunovic last 6 - W0 D1 L5 vs Ince first 6 W2 D1 L3 - improvement of 6 pts over 6 games
Gomes last 6 W0 D1 L5 vs Bowen first 6 W3 D1 L2 - improvement of 9pts
Clement last 6 W1 D3 L2 vs Gomes first 6 W1 D2 L3 - worse by 1 point over the 6 games (that said, it gets solid within about a month of that first run of games)
Stam last 6 W0 D3 L3 vs Clement first 6 W2 D1 L3 - improvement of 4 pts
Clarke W1 D2 L3 vs McD W2 D1 L3 - improvement of 2 pts, it gets better within a month but also utterly falls apart once we're out of the cup
Adkins to Clarke - things get mildly worse, down a point over the 6 games, things then improve until the cup run kicks in.
That's the logic behind this, if you can eke out one or two wins in the last 6-10 games, teams around you won't and you stay up. Two of the earlier sackings, Clement and Adkins, see little immediate improvement but then it does kick in later.
(fwiw, its much more likely that chance comes in and the fixture list throws up at least one team having a much worse time of it than you)
Peak vortex thinking either way.