Play Off Watch?

[Snowflake Royal]

We're close to halfway through the season and we're in the Play Off positions. We've been top half for a while.

Last season's form once Selles sorted things out was top half, any stattos able to work out the ppg from then to date?

Are we genuinely looking like Play Off contenders? Obviously, the ownership situation is the big unknown with us potentially selling our best players, falling apart or getting points deductions.

I think the team would really benefit from the experience of a PO campaign, but I think promotion is a step too far, especially considering the transfer fee embargo doesn't expire until August 25. It feels like a near miss or failed PO campaign could really spur them on to be title contenders next season, if we can just get the ownership ironed out, keep the bulk of the squad and make a few key free signings.

[Greatwesternline]

Promotion is the best chance of keeping young good players at the club.

A club should never want to not get promoted.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Lets see where we are squad wise Feb 1st.

But as it stands things are certainly looking good; I'd imagine we've had the hardest run of away games of all the top half sides, particularly after Wycombe and Lincoln are out of the way.

[Snowflake Royal]

Promotion is the best chance of keeping young good players at the club.

A club should never want to not get promoted.

And yet promotion under McDermott has ended up almost destroying the club and undone decades of building the club up.

Short term gains aren't more important than long term sustainable growth and development.

No point in promotion if you just get relegated again and have to rebuild again, if a small delay helps make the promotion stick better.

[Greatwesternline]

Promotion is the best chance of keeping young good players at the club.

A club should never want to not get promoted.

And yet promotion under McDermott has ended up almost destroying the club and undone decades of building the club up.

Short term gains aren't more important than long term sustainable growth and development.

No point in promotion if you just get relegated again and have to rebuild again, if a small delay helps make the promotion stick better.

No getting bought by Zingarevich, and spending all the wage bill on Pogrebnyak is what destroyed the club.

[From Despair To Where?]

If we hadn't got promoted, do you think we would have chased the signings to anything like the same degree?

[Greatwesternline]

If we hadn't got promoted, do you think we would have chased the signings to anything like the same degree?

Every time a team stays in the division it is in and doesn't get promoted they risk losing their better players.

See:

As a starter for 10:
Shane Long
Danny Williams

There are way too many to list.

[Stranded]

Promotion is the best chance of keeping young good players at the club.

A club should never want to not get promoted.

And yet promotion under McDermott has ended up almost destroying the club and undone decades of building the club up.

Short term gains aren't more important than long term sustainable growth and development.

No point in promotion if you just get relegated again and have to rebuild again, if a small delay helps make the promotion stick better.

I get what you are saying of course but the flip of that is you never know if the current season is as good as it may get. For every club that misses out on promotion esp if it is an unexpectedly good campaign, that then goes on to better things next year - there are tons more who drop back into midtable or worse as they lose players and can't recruit to the same level (or better).

[Hendo]

[Greatwesternline]

Promotion is the best chance of keeping young good players at the club.

A club should never want to not get promoted.

And yet promotion under McDermott has ended up almost destroying the club and undone decades of building the club up.

Short term gains aren't more important than long term sustainable growth and development.

No point in promotion if you just get relegated again and have to rebuild again, if a small delay helps make the promotion stick better.

I get what you are saying of course but the flip of that is you never know if the current season is as good as it may get. For every club that misses out on promotion esp if it is an unexpectedly good campaign, that then goes on to better things next year - there are tons more who drop back into midtable or worse as they lose players and can't recruit to the same level (or better).

+100
You also don't know who is getting relegated.

Last season Pompey really fancied their chances because they thought the clubs getting relegated all looked fallible. (my best friend is a pompey season ticket holder and they really thought it would be their year. ) This year the division includes big spending Birmingham, razzamatazz Wrexham, making it a harder year to get promoted.

If we weren't to go up and three teams came down from Championship with similar budgets to burn like Birmingham, it'd become increasingly difficult.

Any club should always try and get promoted as soon and as often as possible.

[stealthpapes]

We're close to halfway through the season and we're in the Play Off positions. We've been top half for a while.

Last season's form once Selles sorted things out was top half, any stattos able to work out the ppg from then to date?

Are we genuinely looking like Play Off contenders? Obviously, the ownership situation is the big unknown with us potentially selling our best players, falling apart or getting points deductions.

I think the team would really benefit from the experience of a PO campaign, but I think promotion is a step too far, especially considering the transfer fee embargo doesn't expire until August 25. It feels like a near miss or failed PO campaign could really spur them on to be title contenders next season, if we can just get the ownership ironed out, keep the bulk of the squad and make a few key free signings.

Shrews away was game 16, record up to then was P16 W3 D1 L12 - 10 pts from 16.
Next 16 was W7 D7 L2 28 from 16, 1.75 ppg
Next 14 (I know!) was W6 D2 L6, 1.43 ppg
All in all, postShrews was equivalent to a 73-74 pt season, just missing out on the play-offs.

I've broken it up because it felt like the foot went off the gas a bit in Feb and onwards (for example, if it mattered, I think we'd have crushed Burton), plus we played Portsmouth, Derby, Bolton and Barsnley (4 of top 6) away in that last run of games.

[stealthpapes]

In the vernacular, I'd love it, just love it, if this team managed to do something historic.
EFL trophy, play off win. Don't care which.

Selles, for his faults, has adapted and turned the playing side around.
The young players play like they'd run through walls for the shirts and they're mostly our players.
Shame home games aren't fun, but away games are great. We're regularly filling way ends - think we sold out a good half dozen plus away games last season, Blues and Wrexham (Wycombe to come) this. But several hundred to Fleetwood on Valentines is the other side of that coin.

[Snowflake Royal]

Thanks Papes

[Snowflake Royal]

Promotion is the best chance of keeping young good players at the club.

A club should never want to not get promoted.

And yet promotion under McDermott has ended up almost destroying the club and undone decades of building the club up.

Short term gains aren't more important than long term sustainable growth and development.

No point in promotion if you just get relegated again and have to rebuild again, if a small delay helps make the promotion stick better.

I get what you are saying of course but the flip of that is you never know if the current season is as good as it may get. For every club that misses out on promotion esp if it is an unexpectedly good campaign, that then goes on to better things next year - there are tons more who drop back into midtable or worse as they lose players and can't recruit to the same level (or better).

It's the embargo that's the real killer.

It's really hard to find good academy loanees who can cope in the Champ. It's hard to find good freebies who can cope in the Championship.

It's easy to find Academy players who can play L1, most L1 players don't cost a fee.

[Brogue]

with selles going we might as well close thread

[SCIAG]

If we hadn't got promoted, do you think we would have chased the signings to anything like the same degree?

In short, yes.

We were already paying absurd wages to Jason Roberts, iirc around £35,000 a week. After our relegation, we signed Royston Drenthe on a similar deal. Wayne Bridge would have been on a fair wedge too.

We probably wouldn't have been able to sign Pogrebnyak and Guthrie, who were the other two we broke the bank for - but we didn't actually spend much on fees. Something like £2.5m for Gunter, £3m for Mariappa, and £1.35m for Blackman, entirely affordable amounts. It's very easy to imagine Zingarevich sanctioning £100k a week in extra wages and no sales in the hope of winning promotion next time.

And of course we have the evidence of what happened when an ambitious new owner took over after narrowly missing out on promotion - he splurged on Aluko, and then on Puscas and Joao, and on big wages, and didn't make sales.

Every time a team stays in the division it is in and doesn't get promoted they risk losing their better players.

See:

As a starter for 10:
Shane Long
Danny Williams

There are way too many to list.

I love that one of your two examples is Danny Williams, and not, say, Gylfi Sigurdsson or Michael Olise.

[Snowflake Royal]

If we hadn't got promoted, do you think we would have chased the signings to anything like the same degree?

In short, yes.

We were already paying absurd wages to Jason Roberts, iirc around £35,000 a week. After our relegation, we signed Royston Drenthe on a similar deal. Wayne Bridge would have been on a fair wedge too.

We probably wouldn't have been able to sign Pogrebnyak and Guthrie, who were the other two we broke the bank for - but we didn't actually spend much on fees. Something like £2.5m for Gunter, £3m for Mariappa, and £1.35m for Blackman, entirely affordable amounts. It's very easy to imagine Zingarevich sanctioning £100k a week in extra wages and no sales in the hope of winning promotion next time.

And of course we have the evidence of what happened when an ambitious new owner took over after narrowly missing out on promotion - he splurged on Aluko, and then on Puscas and Joao, and on big wages, and didn't make sales.

Every time a team stays in the division it is in and doesn't get promoted they risk losing their better players.

See:

As a starter for 10:
Shane Long
Danny Williams

There are way too many to list.

I love that one of your two examples is Danny Williams, and not, say, Gylfi Sigurdsson or Michael Olise.

We should probably be selling a player or two for good cash most seasons regardless of promotion. And a well built team shouldn't be dependent on a couple of irreplaceable players.

Say we lose Bindon, Knibbs and Garcia. That's not going to throw the club into a tail spin.

It's all a bit pointless because a Play Off win is very likely beyond us, especially if Selles leaves.

[Snowflake Royal]

I know its early and it only takes a couple of games to change things, but there's the hint of a gap developing between 4th to 7th and 8th and below.

Bolton in 7th are 1 point behind 6th(us) with a game in hand.

Whilst Barnsley and Lincoln are 4 points off 6th having played a game more.

Mansfield also have a game in hand, but are 6 points behind.

With our next 4 games Blackpool (H), Lincoln (A), Northampton (H), Mansfield (A), we could be very secure in the POs by January, or dropping out of them.

We're capable of beating any of them, and we're now unbeaten in 4 league away games! I wonder when the last time we could say that is!

Just avoid away defeat against at least one of Lincoln and Mansfield and win the home games and things look pretty rosey!

[Sutekh]

I know its early and it only takes a couple of games to change things, but there's the hint of a gap developing between 4th to 7th and 8th and below.

Bolton in 7th are 1 point behind 6th(us) with a game in hand.

Whilst Barnsley and Lincoln are 4 points off 6th having played a game more.

Mansfield also have a game in hand, but are 6 points behind.

With our next 4 games Blackpool (H), Lincoln (A), Northampton (H), Mansfield (A), we could be very secure in the POs by January, or dropping out of them.

We're capable of beating any of them, and we're now unbeaten in 4 league away games! I wonder when the last time we could say that is!

Just avoid away defeat against at least one of Lincoln and Mansfield and win the home games and things look pretty rosey!

Technically the last time Reading remained unbeaten in 4 (or more) away games was this time last year with 4 games at Lincoln (1-1), Peterborough (2-2), Cheltenham (2-2) and Brighton (0-0). The last time Reading managed 4 or more league games unbeaten away was 5 games around this time of year in 2020-2021 (Swansea 0-0, Huddersfield 2-1, Preston 0-0, Stoke 0-0, Bristol C 2-0) though it did have a 1-0 defeat at Luton in the FA Cup in the middle of it.

4 away league games unbeaten was also managed in August/September 2020 (Derby 2-0, Cardiff 2-1, Middlesbrough 0-0 and Blackburn 4-2)

Meanwhile, the next 8 games in ALL competitions are:

December

10th - Walsall (a) - Trophy
14th - Blackpool (h) - League
21st - Lincoln (a) - League
26th - Northampton (h) - League
29th - Mansfield (h) - League

January

1st - Cambridge (a) - League
4th - Charlton (a) - League
11th - Burnley (h) - FA Cup

If Reading are still stuck inside the play offs after that lot then there's every chance of pulling off a remarkable season given the issues.

[stealthpapes]

I know its early and it only takes a couple of games to change things, but there's the hint of a gap developing between 4th to 7th and 8th and below.

Bolton in 7th are 1 point behind 6th(us) with a game in hand.

Whilst Barnsley and Lincoln are 4 points off 6th having played a game more.

Mansfield also have a game in hand, but are 6 points behind.

With our next 4 games Blackpool (H), Lincoln (A), Northampton (H), Mansfield (A), we could be very secure in the POs by January, or dropping out of them.

We're capable of beating any of them, and we're now unbeaten in 4 league away games! I wonder when the last time we could say that is!

Just avoid away defeat against at least one of Lincoln and Mansfield and win the home games and things look pretty rosey!

one thing I noticed last season was that it took forever to finally break clear of relegation.

why?

because the teams we were chasing cycled around. One week someone would be three points away and, as if by magic, they win here, draw there and crawl away. So someone else would shuffle down, realise they were getting close and do the same. Also factor in the randomisation of the fixture list.

So I can imagine a similar effect around the play-offs. Teams getting close then not having quite what it takes. Teams with some level of quality able to rectify any wobbles.

Midtable is a big BLOB of teams, all of which have enough to win the odd game and avoid defeat. Get above them and we will stay above them.