Shane Long Interview - Mentions HNA?

[Rex]

The on loan thing could have been discussed but we always had one striker or another out long term injured. Kitson in the Middlesborough home game and Doyle at Everton. This i feel limited the options and possibly, just possibly threw Shane in at the deep end on occasion.

[brendywendy]

not sure his spin on "time on pitch to goals scored" ratio is a particularly relevant stat.

i think its very relevant. couldnt be more relevant imo

im bhacking snowball

and starfish

[CMRoyal]

For my 2 cents.....

Snowball deserves credit for the amount of statistical analysis he generates. Some of it is useful reading, some is utter twaddle, but all is at least well researched and presented well.

It's best when he sticks to the facts rather than trying to extrapolate, though, ie if Shane makes 6 appearances of around 15 minutes each you cannot count that as one full performance. In this respect, snowball can be guilty of spinning the stats to make a case. But hey, if Shane took it all on face value and took confidence from that (something of which I am also growing sceptical) then fair play to all concerned.

[brendywendy]

ie if Shane makes 6 appearances of around 15 minutes each you cannot count that as one full performanc

if anything though its likely to sway the stats away from shanes favour, as you may be more likley to score with a bit of time on the pitch

[Wimb]

For my 2 cents.....

Snowball deserves credit for the amount of statistical analysis he generates. Some of it is useful reading, some is utter twaddle, but all is at least well researched and presented well.

It's best when he sticks to the facts rather than trying to extrapolate, though, ie if Shane makes 6 appearances of around 15 minutes each you cannot count that as one full performance. In this respect, snowball can be guilty of spinning the stats to make a case. But hey, if Shane took it all on face value and took confidence from that (something of which I am also growing sceptical) then fair play to all concerned.

totally 'greed. Same with the 'MACSTATS' where cup wins were counted as 3 points

As people have said all over this site, stats can be spun anyway you like, minutes per goal tell you a tale of how many goals people scored but don't factor in the quality of oppossition, how many are scored in 1 game, how easy the goal was, quality of the team you played in etc etc.

That being said, Snowball's point was always that Long wasn't the best but he wasn't as shite as some were labelling. Sadly when given his 'big chance' as the clubs new No9 Long didn't grasp it under Rodgers. Whether that is down to BR, Long or someone else is impossible to say but he still let himself and the club down with the condition he was in and some moments of madness (i.e Derby away)

But now we have a 'new Shane Long' one that is embracing the qualities that made him an option in the PL days and adding new ones like improved strength etc. 'Long' may it continue

But as you said, if Snowballs stats did give him a boost then fair play, horses for courses and all that

[Wimb]

ie if Shane makes 6 appearances of around 15 minutes each you cannot count that as one full performanc

if anything though its likely to sway the stats away from shanes favour, as you may be more likley to score with a bit of time on the pitch

Yes and No brend, again (and i don't know this either way) you have to take into context who he's come on against and what level they were at. Teams are often tiring in the closing stages and games me already be over (either lost/won) so the number of chances in the last 20 minutes of a game may exceed the first 70. Similarly if Long plays 20 minutes against say Doncaster and scores 1, thats going to be easier then scoring in 90 against West Brom.

Again don't know that's the case with Long but its an example of how stats don't always tell the full story.

[Snowball]

Still not sure his spin on "time on pitch to goals scored" ratio is a particularly relevant stat.

Like most of the other ones though.

WHY EVER NOT?

When Doyle played he virtually always started, and, unless injured, usually played 85 minutes or more.

When Noel Hunt played he mostly started, but rarely played past 60-65 minutes

Noel's minutes played from starts averaged almost exactly 2/3 of Doyle's

That's why Noel's goals ratio was very good and very very close to Doyle.


If a manager started using Kebe first half and then McAnuff second half, each player would only
be playing for a maximum of 50% of the possible minutes. It would be unreasonable to expect them
to match the stats of those playing regular nineties...


If you compare our three top assisters...

7-1 = 8 Assists 8-4 = 12 goals "20" Gylfi
7-1 = 8 Assists 6-2 = 08 goals "16" Kebe
9-0 = 9 Assists 1-0 = 01 goals "10" McAnuff

but the factor in time on the pitch

29-00 = 29.0 Games McAnuff
27-05 = 27.8 Games Gylfi
21-13 = 23.3 Games Kebe


Then Kebe looks far, far more productive. To NOT take into account time on pitch and starts seems crazy to me

[coyrls]

Nothing conclusive but I think there are hints that this is invented:

Long found the change initially hard

I think an editor would be likely to change this to "Long initially found the change hard"

And what people tend to forget

Unlikely to start a new paragraph with "And"

Tipperaryman

Can't find this usage on Google "Tipperary man" is common though.

we can only hope for more sparkling performances

Doesn't sound like a newspaper here "We can only hope", why? Also "sparkling" is an odd choice of adjective.

[ZacNaloen]

Don't forget that It's a local newspaper from his home town, of course they are going to be cheerleading him.

Have you read the Chronicles reports on reading?

[coyrls]

Don't forget that It's a local newspaper from his home town, of course they are going to be cheerleading him.

Have you read the Chronicles reports on reading?

I agree it's possible but I don't think they would have said "We", I think they would have been more specific about who would be hoping. As I say not conclusive but I think there's enough to suggest that it's been invented.

[CMRoyal]

To NOT take into account time on pitch and starts seems crazy to me

You can take them into account, but you can't extrapolate. You can't directly compare six 15-minute appearances by one player with one 90-minute appearance by another. As a rough guide, maybe, but not as a like-for-like comparison.

[Royal With Cheese]

To NOT take into account time on pitch and starts seems crazy to me

You can take them into account, but you can't extrapolate. You can't directly compare six 15-minute appearances by one player with one 90-minute appearance by another. As a rough guide, maybe, but not as a like-for-like comparison.

I was just about to post that. As has been stated on numerous threads this is skewed as a lot of Long's substitutions were towards the end of the game. He has an obvious advantage over defenders that have been on the pitch the whole time and are, naturally, more tired. I don't know how you can add this in as a factor but it should be in the statistical mix.

[PlasticRoyale]

i may throw my stats hat into the ring and start posting up the odds for Reading games before they're released by the bookies

[The Surgeon of Crowthorne]

As any statistician should know, averages do not tell the whole story - it's the spread that's gone into the average that's important. Extrapolating from an average without applying some sort of variance is meaningless.

[Royal Lady]

There's NO WAY that is a real newspaper report. Sorry Snowball.

[Baines]

Obviously pretty meaningful to Shane though.

[brendywendy]

To NOT take into account time on pitch and starts seems crazy to me

You can take them into account, but you can't extrapolate. You can't directly compare six 15-minute appearances by one player with one 90-minute appearance by another. As a rough guide, maybe, but not as a like-for-like comparison.

I was just about to post that. As has been stated on numerous threads this is skewed as a lot of Long's substitutions were towards the end of the game. He has an obvious advantage over defenders that have been on the pitch the whole time and are, naturally, more tired. I don't know how you can add this in as a factor but it should be in the statistical mix.

surely that is simply offset by the lack of time to impose himself on those games

[Rex]

I really forget which match it was (Newcastle????at home) but didn't 'our Shane' score a goal within 20 seconds of coming on once.

[Seal]

The most unlikely piece of the whole article would be that a professional footballer would EVER be so specific about putting on weight.

Their egos simply would not allow it.

[coyrls]

The most unlikely piece of the whole article would be that a professional footballer would EVER be so specific about putting on weight.

Their egos simply would not allow it.

I agree, particularly as Shane Long has always said in interviews that it was injuries that were keeping him out. I was trying to look at the use of language rather than content in my analysis.