World Cup 2018

[Marino13]

A wc without buffon is not a world cup

many a great player
have not made it to a wc.
george weah.

[Sutekh]

Of course if European qualification was sorted into something like 15 groups of 4 with just the winners progressing then Italy would most likely have qualified with ease - plus fixture calendars wouldn't get clogged up with a load of pointless games and leagues wouldn't keep getting stopped for 2 weeks.

But then I forgot that that's common sense and that everyone just wants money, money, money.....

[double d]

Of course if European qualification was sorted into something like 15 groups of 4 with just the winners progressing then Italy would most likely have qualified with ease - plus fixture calendars wouldn't get clogged up with a load of pointless games and leagues wouldn't keep getting stopped for 2 weeks.

But then I forgot that that's common sense and that everyone just wants money, money, money.....

But then they decide to do an utterly pointless nations cup competition instead which does not make sense?

[Stranded]

, they didn't help themselves by having a poor world cup as well as draws against Luxembourg.

if you look at Luxembourg's recent results you'd be surprised, for a mini-country. They won last week (beat Hungary in a friendly), having got a reasonable number of points in their difficult WC qualifying group (France, Sweden, NL, Bulgaria, Belorussia), including drawing away in France. I think "we" finished second bottom, but obtained (from memory) 6 points. That also includes a 4-3 defeat in Bulgaria where they could/should have won. Could have won in France too, on the counter. No longer pushovers.

Ok, I'm ignoring the 8 (eight) nil defeat in Sweden in the match after the French one.

Complete agree but the Lux result that effected Italy's ranking was back in 2014 go a bit before the recent improvement. "You" will provide a decent test for most teams at the moment.

BTW whilst beating Hungary in a friendly is a decent result, worth remembering thay have seriously gone downhill since Euro 2016 incl losing 1-0 to Andorra in a WCQ.

[Hoop Blah]

Draw was based on rankings in July 2015 so whilst that draw would have had a major effect, they didn't help themselves by having a poor world cup as well as draws against Armenia and Luxembourg. As a result they were ranked 17th in the World at the time, or 12th in UEFA, so were Pot 2 and were always going to meet one of the traditionally better sides. Of course, Netherlands were still a top seed for this qualifying but have slipped up quite badly over the last few years, so they were unlucky to get Spain.

That makes sense, and obviously they'd still expect to make it through the play-offs regardless of the difficulty of their group.

The bit I heard on the radio was (I think) an Italy fan bemoaning the fact that they didn't have someone paying any attention to the rankings and the effects the friendly games they were playing were having on them. So the opposite to the likes Wales who paid a lot of attention them in order to get the best rankings possible to improve their chances of qualifications.

[LUX]

So the opposite to the likes Wales who paid a lot of attention them in order to get the best rankings possible to improve their chances of qualifications.

that went well.

[Hoop Blah]

So the opposite to the likes Wales who paid a lot of attention them in order to get the best rankings possible to improve their chances of qualifications.

that went well.

Joking aside though Lux, it did work well for them over the last however many years as it got them into easier groups by virtue of their ranking, which then helped improve their ranking further, and ultimately (combined with Bale's form and the qualification process) allowed them to qualify for the Euro's.

[bcubed]

So the opposite to the likes Wales who paid a lot of attention them in order to get the best rankings possible to improve their chances of qualifications.

that went well.

Joking aside though Lux, it did work well for them over the last however many years as it got them into easier groups by virtue of their ranking, which then helped improve their ranking further, and ultimately (combined with Bale's form and the qualification process) allowed them to qualify for the Euro's.

indeed
Managing your friendly games is the way forward

[Sutekh]

Shouldn't ranking only be based on competitive games as friendlies are generally used by nations for experimenting and generally the higher rank you are the less interest and desire you have about the things.

Certainly explains why England continually play the same old faces in their friendlies though....

Either way it's over complicated way to prove that Brazil and Germany are the best and that England aren't

[Sanguine]

Draw was based on rankings in July 2015 so whilst that draw would have had a major effect, they didn't help themselves by having a poor world cup as well as draws against Armenia and Luxembourg. As a result they were ranked 17th in the World at the time, or 12th in UEFA, so were Pot 2 and were always going to meet one of the traditionally better sides. Of course, Netherlands were still a top seed for this qualifying but have slipped up quite badly over the last few years, so they were unlucky to get Spain.

That makes sense, and obviously they'd still expect to make it through the play-offs regardless of the difficulty of their group.

The bit I heard on the radio was (I think) an Italy fan bemoaning the fact that they didn't have someone paying any attention to the rankings and the effects the friendly games they were playing were having on them. So the opposite to the likes Wales who paid a lot of attention them in order to get the best rankings possible to improve their chances of qualifications.

Yep - that. They have very much 'done a Wales' albeit the rugby side, who missed out on seeding for the last rugby world cup having lost a money-spinning friendly to Australia. In italy's case, they won only 1 of their last 6 matches before the seedings were frozen, and two of those were lucrative but ultimately pointless friendlies against England (a draw) and Portugal (a defeat). And more broadly, in the two years prior to July 2015, they only won 7 out of 23 games. This has been coming.

[Sanguine]

Sort of related to that, I've been looking at the list of qualifiers, there's a decent spread across the pots, a bit of a 'changing of the guard', which is welcome, I think.

France (2)
Portugal (1)
Germany (1)
Serbia (3)
Poland (3)
England (1)
Spain (1)
Belgium (1)
Iceland (2)

Switzerland (2)
Croatia (1)
Sweden (3)
Denmark (2)/Ireland (4)

Ireland would be the only 4th seeded team to get there if they get through the playoff. Netherlands, Romania and Wales all top seeds who failed to qualify.

Interestingly* Luxembourg are now ranked 93rd in the world and comfortably out of the pot of lowest ranked sides, and above the likes of Latvia and Lithuania. Also interestingly* we are currently ranked only 8th in Europe.

[Sutekh]

Draw was based on rankings in July 2015 so whilst that draw would have had a major effect, they didn't help themselves by having a poor world cup as well as draws against Armenia and Luxembourg. As a result they were ranked 17th in the World at the time, or 12th in UEFA, so were Pot 2 and were always going to meet one of the traditionally better sides. Of course, Netherlands were still a top seed for this qualifying but have slipped up quite badly over the last few years, so they were unlucky to get Spain.

That makes sense, and obviously they'd still expect to make it through the play-offs regardless of the difficulty of their group.

The bit I heard on the radio was (I think) an Italy fan bemoaning the fact that they didn't have someone paying any attention to the rankings and the effects the friendly games they were playing were having on them. So the opposite to the likes Wales who paid a lot of attention them in order to get the best rankings possible to improve their chances of qualifications.

Yep - that. They have very much 'done a Wales' albeit the rugby side, who missed out on seeding for the last rugby world cup having lost a money-spinning friendly to Australia. In italy's case, they won only 1 of their last 6 matches before the seedings were frozen, and two of those were lucrative but ultimately pointless friendlies against England (a draw) and Portugal (a defeat). And more broadly, in the two years prior to July 2015, they only won 7 out of 23 games. This has been coming.

Could be dodgy for England in the next set of qualifiers - might get Italy or The Netherlands thrown at them (although with the increase in finalists that FIFA and UEFA keep insisting on you'd have to be extremely cr@p not to make it).

[Stranded]

Shouldn't ranking only be based on competitive games as friendlies are generally used by nations for experimenting and generally the higher rank you are the less interest and desire you have about the things.

Certainly explains why England continually play the same old faces in their friendlies though....

Either way it's over complicated way to prove that Brazil and Germany are the best and that England aren't

Friendlies have the lowest weighting on the rankings - they have a weighting of 1 a game in a World Cup has a weighting of 4.

Calculation also takes in to account the opponents ranking, confederation strength. So a draw against England in a friendly is worth a lot less than a draw in a qualifer or finals tournament.

Teams will drop down by playing and failing to beat lower ranked teams whilst historic better results drop off. England play the same old faces as it will have minimal effect on their points total if they lose but if they win could produce a boost.

Rankings are playable as per Wales but it helps to start from a low base. Wales also learnt that the benefit of friendlies on the rankings is limited and play the bare minimum usually against teams that should see them retain or improve on points about to drop off their score. Switzerland similarly. Surprised more countries don't do it.

[Ascotexgunner]

A wc without buffon is not a world cup

many a great player
have not made it to a wc.
george weah.

Gareth Bale

[Sutekh]

A wc without buffon is not a world cup

many a great player
have not made it to a wc.
george weah.

Gareth Bale

George Best is probably the greatest player never to have made it to the finals.

[Jackson Corner]

many a great player
have not made it to a wc.
george weah.

Gareth Bale

George Best is probably the greatest player never to have made it to the finals.

Ryan Giggs
Liam Brady

[Stranded]

So with 2 spots to fill by the time we wake up tomorrow (Peru V NZ is a 2.15am GMT KO) Seedings for the WC Draw are looking like this:

Pot 1
Russia
Brazil
Belgium
Germany
Poland
Portugal
France
Argentina

Pot 2
Mexico
England
Spain
Uruguay
Colombia
Switzerland
Croatia
Denmark/Peru

Pot 3
Denmark/Serbia
Iran
Costa Rica
Egypt
Iceland
Senegal
Tunisia
Sweden

Pot 4
Serbia/New Zealand
Japan
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Panama
Morocco
Australia/Honduras

Potential for some very tough groups there - Argentina, Spain, Sweden, Nigeria would be very interesting.

So best and worst case draws for England?

IMO Best

Argentina
England
Iran
Panama

Worst
Germany
England
Costa Rica
Morocco

The Group of death that could be drawn (ie highest ranking sides in each pot that could meet):

Germany, Spain, Costa Rica, Nigeria

The "weakest" group would be:

France, Croatia, Iran, Panama

[double d]

So with 2 spots to fill by the time we wake up tomorrow (Peru V NZ is a 2.15am GMT KO) Seedings for the WC Draw are looking like this:

Pot 1
Russia
Brazil
Belgium
Germany
Poland
Portugal
France
Argentina

Pot 2
Mexico
England
Spain
Uruguay
Colombia
Switzerland
Croatia
Denmark/Peru

Pot 3
Denmark/Serbia
Iran
Costa Rica
Egypt
Iceland
Senegal
Tunisia
Sweden

Pot 4
Serbia/New Zealand
Japan
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Panama
Morocco
Australia/Honduras

Potential for some very tough groups there - Argentina, Spain, Sweden, Nigeria would be very interesting.

So best and worst case draws for England?

IMO Best

Argentina
England
Iran
Panama

Worst
Germany
England
Costa Rica
Morocco

The Group of death that could be drawn (ie highest ranking sides in each pot that could meet):

Germany, Spain, Costa Rica, Nigeria

The "weakest" group would be:

France, Croatia, Iran, Panama

I would take Poland over Argentina any day. I would say Russia but the fans are going to be murderous racists and get heavily behind their team so i don't know.

Do you reckon they will have sorted themselves out by then? I fear for some of the African teams and the abuse they could get.

[Sutekh]

So with 2 spots to fill by the time we wake up tomorrow (Peru V NZ is a 2.15am GMT KO) Seedings for the WC Draw are looking like this:

Pot 1
Russia
Brazil
Belgium
Germany
Poland
Portugal
France
Argentina

Pot 2
Mexico
England
Spain
Uruguay
Colombia
Switzerland
Croatia
Denmark/Peru

Pot 3
Denmark/Serbia
Iran
Costa Rica
Egypt
Iceland
Senegal
Tunisia
Sweden

Pot 4
Serbia/New Zealand
Japan
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Panama
Morocco
Australia/Honduras

Potential for some very tough groups there - Argentina, Spain, Sweden, Nigeria would be very interesting.

So best and worst case draws for England?

IMO Best

Argentina
England
Iran
Panama

Worst
Germany
England
Costa Rica
Morocco

The Group of death that could be drawn (ie highest ranking sides in each pot that could meet):

Germany, Spain, Costa Rica, Nigeria

The "weakest" group would be:

France, Croatia, Iran, Panama

I would take Poland over Argentina any day. I would say Russia but the fans are going to be murderous racists and get heavily behind their team so i don't know.

Do you reckon they will have sorted themselves out by then? I fear for some of the African teams and the abuse they could get.

How did Poland's seeding creep up so much? I thought Spain were still just holding their head above the rest.

Peru are extremely likely to beat New Zealand so that presumably drops Denmark into group 3 and Australia should be too strong for Honduras

As for England well if they get drawn with Brazil or Germany at least that means that they won't get them again until the semi or final

But then if they did get one of them they'd probably have to win the group to avoid getting France/Germany/Brazil etc. in the last 16.

Therefore I shall hope for (in order) Poland, Portugal, Argentina, Belgium, Russia, France, Brazil, Germany

Overall though I think England's issues may be more to do with seeds 3 and 4 than seed 1

Can't wait until 2026 when even England might get seeded first.

[Silver Fox]

It really doesn't matter who England get in their group. They'll make heavy work of it but get through to round 2 where they'll beat a 2nd string South American team before going out to one of the big lads, probably on penalties