Perspective

[Snowball]

Look, I've already calculated that Shane is going to finish on 42 Goals

[Snowball]

We've talked about needing to get 2 points per game over the last 15
and so far so good.

But what about our rivals? How are they doing?
Last Column is their projected 15-game tally
based on their 6 or 7 games so far

Figures were wrong. For the games played so far in the last 15 games it's

2.17 ppg 09 games to play 19.53 predicted points gained to finish 93 QPR
2.00 ppg 10 games to play 20.00 predicted points gained to finish 83 Norwich
2.17 ppg 11 games to play 23.87 predicted points gained to finish 80 Burnley
1.67 ppg 09 games to play 15.03 predicted points gained to finish 78 Swansea
2.20 ppg 10 games to play 22.00 predicted points gained to finish 76 Reading
1.67 ppg 09 games to play 15.03 predicted points gained to finish 75 Hull
1.50 ppg 09 games to play 13.50 predicted points gained to finish 75 Leeds
1.00 ppg 09 games to play 09.00 predicted points gained to finish 71 Cardiff
1.50 ppg 09 games to play 13.50 predicted points gained to finish 67 Watford
0.67 ppg 09 games to play 06.03 predicted points gained to finish 66 Forest
1.17 ppg 09 games to play 10.53 predicted points gained to finish 66 Leicester
1.17 ppg 09 games to play 10.53 predicted points gained to finish 64 Millwall

[Snowball]

If all the clubs maintained their current ppg (6 or 7 of the last 15 so far played)
for the last 15 games, the table would finish

as post above

Of course, the averages are one thing, away to Forest/Leeds is another

[Arch]

Thanks, snowbs, but it still hurts.

[Snowball]

I know. But now we pick ourselves up, dust ourselves down
and go to Barnsley.


Win there and we will start to look tasty. Lose and it's probably time to play the kids.

Draw we are still on track for 2 ppg

[Snowball]

Looks like, unless there's a dramatic change in overall form, that Forest and Cardiff are blowing it
and Burnley (blip aside) are on a charge. Next two games become a huge deal for these clubs
and for RFC. A couple more bad results for Forest and Cardiff and they are really catchable,
not just by us, but by Hull, Burnley, Leicester.

The difference between us and the rest is we haven't got room for dropping points.
We MUST get 2 ppg. We might, with a lot of luck scrape home with 28/29 from 15 games
(now 18 from 9 games = 6 wins) but it isn't likely. In truth we probably need at least 31 from
the last 15 games = 19 from 9.

The games at Leeds and/or Forest are now immense. If we were to average 2 ppg but
lost at Leeds, it would mean we'd have 8 games plus a game in hand to gain 10 points
and since they are averaging 1.5 ppg and would get 12 at least we'd need to get 22 points
from our last 9 games, a mere 7 wins and a draw from 9.

In other words, they beat us we don't catch them


Forest? At the moment they are playing like they are going to tumble out of the top six.
That could stop next game of course, but they are currently looking like 66-67 points IF
their form doesn't change. If we averaged 2 ppg for 9 games but lost at Forest we'd still
finish higher than them

We now have (next four games)

A Barnsley
H Portsmouth
H Preston
A Forest

They have


A Swansea Lose - Draw?
A Leeds Lose - Draw?
H Reading
H Burnley Draw?

If we can get seven points from our next three games. We might be


39 GD-19 61 Reading
39 GD-12 60 Nott'm Forest

Forest must be dreading their next four matches. But from our POV if they beat the other three
and we draw there (8 or 10 points from 4) we will have surely gained 3 points on Burnley, Leeds and Swansea.

In a nut-shell it's sort of in our hands. Get 7 or 9 points from our next three and we must catch either Burnley or Forest
and will have seriously closed the gap on Leeds.

Forget the cup, the next four games may well define our season.

If we manage 7 from 9 (playing a game in hand) we could be in the top six. (So could Burnley)

If we get 9 from 9 (but it wont be easy at Barnsley) we should be in the top six

Because these are playing each other

Swansea-Forest
Leeds-Forest
Bristol-Burnley
Hull-Millwall,
Leicester-Burnley,
Millwall-Leeds ,
Watford-Hull
Swansea- Norwich

Game 5 (Tuesday 12 April) sees

Forest-Burnley
Swansea-Hull
Watford-Norwich



Come on you Rs

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

can't we just take it one game at a time,

Re Barnsley, their results against the top ten are as follows.

P18
W2
D5
L 11

Against the 14 teams ahead of them

P23
W3
D7
L13

[TFF]

Snowball,

could you please forget "last 15 games" and "last nine games" (plus a game in hand)

We have ten games left.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

STatistically that might be true!!

[Snowball]

Snowball,

could you please forget "last 15 games" and "last nine games" (plus a game in hand)

We have ten games left.

I started with an argument that we needed 30 points from 15 games,
and I'm sticking to that, especially as we are ahead of that target
and will remain on target with a draw at Barnsley.

And the collapsing form of some Forest, and poor (Cardiff) and so-so (Leeds)
kind of matters. How d'you guess at the next X games without considering
how a team is performing in its last few games?

[Snowball]

can't we just take it one game at a time,

Re Barnsley, their results against the top ten are as follows.

P18
W2
D5
L 11

Against the 14 teams ahead of them

P23
W3
D7
L13

I thought "previous form doesn't count"?

More recently their form has (unfortunately) improved

They drew with Ipswich and Leeds and have just drawn at Cardiff

[TFF]

Snowball,

could you please forget "last 15 games" and "last nine games" (plus a game in hand)

We have ten games left.

I started with an argument that we needed 30 points from 15 games,
and I'm sticking to that, especially as we are ahead of that target
and will remain on target with a draw at Barnsley.

What was your points target? I forget what we were on after 31 games.

[Snowball]

Snowball,

could you please forget "last 15 games" and "last nine games" (plus a game in hand)

We have ten games left.

I started with an argument that we needed 30 points from 15 games,
and I'm sticking to that, especially as we are ahead of that target
and will remain on target with a draw at Barnsley.

What was your points target? I forget what we were on after 31 games.

43-73

[TFF]

Then might I suggest you adopt:

Target (established with 15 games remaining) = 73 points

10 games left = 1.9ppg required

It would save you a lot of typing and make your posts easier to follow.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

so we need to get 1.9 points against Barnsley then?

[TFF]

so we need to get 1.9 points against Barnsley then?

Yes.

tbf, it's no harder than 2 points

[Arch]

Seriously, it's Barnsley. Nothing less than 2.3 will be acceptable.

[Svlad Cjelli]

There’s another way of looking at it – it’s not about how many points we get, as we could win all the games and not get in the play-offs.

It’s about how many points we get relative to the others, so all we need to do is FOUR or more of the below :

- Get 2 more points than Leicester from one extra game than them
- Get 2 more points than Hull from one extra game than them
- Get 3 more points than Burnley with one fewer game to play than them
- Get 7 more points than Forest from one extra game than them, including playing them
- Get 8 more points than Leeds from one extra game than them, including playing them
- Get 9 more points than Cardiff from one extra game than them
- Get 10 more points than Norwich from the same number of games
- Get 10 more points than Swansea from one extra than them

Assuming goal difference stays the same, each of the below points targets can be reduced by 1.

[brendywendy]

There’s another way of looking at it – it’s not about how many points we get, as we could win all the games and not get in the play-offs.

It’s about how many points we get relative to the others, so all we need to do is FOUR or more of the below :

- Get 2 more points than Leicester from one extra game than them
- Get 2 more points than Hull from one extra game than them
- Get 3 more points than Burnley with one fewer game to play than them
- Get 7 more points than Forest from one extra game than them, including playing them
- Get 8 more points than Leeds from one extra game than them, including playing them
- Get 9 more points than Cardiff from one extra game than them
- Get 10 more points than Norwich from the same number of games
- Get 10 more points than Swansea from one extra than them

Assuming goal difference stays the same, each of the below points targets can be reduced by 1.

5 of them look more than just possible


exciting!

[Snowball]

There’s another way of looking at it – it’s not about how many points we get, as we could win all the games and not get in the play-offs.

I very much doubt that is true. For one thing, if we won all our
games then Leeds, Forest lose a game, and a lot of these sides
still have to play each other